农产品早报-20250919

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, with new - season corn approaching and terminal demand weakening, the price is weak. Due to low inventory, the decline is limited, maintaining a weak oscillation. In the long - term, with increased production and lower costs, the price is expected to decline until consumption improves or there is farmers' reluctance to sell [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, as the cost of raw corn decreases, the price of starch is expected to be lowered to reduce inventory. In the long - term, high inventory and lower expected raw material costs keep the outlook bearish [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazil's high - pressure supply weighs on prices. Domestic prices follow the international trend, with imported sugar arrival and lower processing sugar quotes, facing upward pressure [6]. - Cotton: It has entered a consolidation phase. Without major macro - risks, the April low may be the long - term bottom, and the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [9]. - Eggs: In August, high supply and low demand led to price drops. In September, school openings and holiday stocking boosted prices, but high cold - storage egg inventory and slow chicken culling may suppress the price increase [14]. - Apples: New - season production may be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the price is currently stable. Attention should be paid to the final production [18]. - Pigs: The price is in a range - bound oscillation. There are policy expectations for the future, but mid - term supply pressure remains. In September, there is high potential supply, and the market is affected by factors like sales rhythm, diseases, and policies [18]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From 2025/09/12 - 2025/09/18, the price in some regions like Jinzhou decreased by 10, the basis of corn decreased by 26, and the basis of starch decreased by 18 [2]. - Market Analysis: Short - term price is weak due to new - season arrival and weak demand; long - term price is pressured by increased production and lower costs. For starch, short - term price reduction is expected to clear inventory, and long - term outlook is bearish [3]. Sugar - Price Data: From 2025/09/12 - 2025/09/18, the basis increased by 45, and the import profit from Thailand and Brazil increased by 30, while the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 359 [6]. - Market Analysis: International supply pressure from Brazil affects prices, and domestic prices are under pressure due to imported sugar arrival [6]. Cotton - Price Data: From 2025/09/12 - 2025/09/18, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 120, the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 177, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 106 [9]. - Market Analysis: It is in a consolidation phase, and the downward space is limited without major macro - risks. Demand changes are crucial [9]. Eggs - Price Data: From 2025/09/12 - 2025/09/18, the price in some regions like Hebei and Liaoning decreased by 0.07, and the basis increased by 125 [14]. - Market Analysis: August saw price drops due to high supply and low demand. September's price increase is affected by high cold - storage inventory and slow chicken culling [14]. Apples - Price Data: From 2025/09/12 - 2025/09/18, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable, and the basis of different contract months changed slightly [17][18]. - Market Analysis: New - season production may be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and price is stable. Final production is to be watched [18]. Pigs - Price Data: From 2025/09/12 - 2025/09/18, the price in some regions like Henan Kaifeng decreased, and the basis increased by 120 [18]. - Market Analysis: The price is range - bound. There are future policy expectations, but mid - term supply pressure remains, and it is affected by multiple factors [18].