芳烃橡胶早报-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the restart of international TA plants has led to a rise in production, a slight increase in polyester load, stable inventory, weak basis, and low spot processing fees. With the restart of plants, TA de - stocking slows down. Considering the lack of unexpected performance in polyester and future new production, far - month inventory accumulation is expected. However, processing fees are at a very low level for a long time, and with the gradual return of PX supply, potential additional maintenance may offer opportunities to expand processing fees [1]. - Regarding MEG, domestic oil - based production is stable, coal - based production has a slight increase in load, overall load rises, overseas plants have a mix of maintenance and restart. With the increase in arrivals this week, port inventory accumulates slightly. Downstream stocking levels rise, and the basis weakens. New MEG plants start production earlier than expected, and valuations are significantly compressed. Future arrivals are expected to increase, and port inventory may gradually accumulate, but current inventory is not high, and valuations may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the production of some plants increases, leading to a rise in overall production. Sales improve, and inventory decreases slightly. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remains stable, raw material stocking decreases, and finished product inventory decreases. Given the high inventory of polyester yarn finished products, the speed of increasing production may slow down. Although the spot profit of staple fiber is good and production remains high, inventory pressure is limited, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate [1]. - In the natural rubber market, the national inventory remains stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber is stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Market data: From September 12 - 18, 2025, crude oil prices fluctuated slightly, PX prices and processing spreads changed, PTA prices increased slightly, spot processing fees were at a low level, and the average daily trading basis was 2601(-77). The PTA device of Zhongtai Chemical with a capacity of 1.2 million tons was under maintenance [1]. - Market situation: International TA plants restarted, production increased, polyester load rose slightly, inventory was stable, basis was weak, and spot processing fees were low. PX domestic production increased, overseas plants restarted, PXN remained stable, disproportionation benefits remained, and isomerization benefits weakened. The price difference between American and Asian aromatics was stable [1]. - Future outlook: TA de - stocking slows down. Given the lack of unexpected performance in polyester and future new production, far - month inventory accumulation is expected. However, processing fees are at a very low level for a long time, and with the gradual return of PX supply, potential additional maintenance may offer opportunities to expand processing fees [1]. MEG - Market data: From September 12 - 18, 2025, MEG prices were relatively stable, the basis for 01 was around (+78), and the Xinjiang Tianye plant with a capacity of 600,000 tons restarted [1]. - Market situation: Domestic oil - based production was stable, coal - based production had a slight increase in load, overall load rose, overseas plants had a mix of maintenance and restart. With the increase in arrivals this week, port inventory accumulated slightly, downstream stocking levels rose, and the basis weakened [1]. - Future outlook: New MEG plants start production earlier than expected, and valuations are significantly compressed. Future arrivals are expected to increase, and port inventory may gradually accumulate, but current inventory is not high, and valuations may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Market data: From September 1 - 18, 2025, spot prices were around 6462, and the market basis for 10 was around - 40. The production of Sanfangxiang and Yizheng increased, and the overall production rate reached 94.4% [1]. - Market situation: Production increased, sales improved, and inventory decreased slightly. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material stocking decreased, and finished product inventory decreased. The profit of polyester yarn was weak [1]. - Future outlook: Given the high inventory of polyester yarn finished products, the speed of increasing production may slow down. Although the spot profit of staple fiber is good and production remains high, inventory pressure is limited, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate [1]. Natural Rubber - Market data: From September 1 - 18, 2025, prices of various types of natural rubber fluctuated. For example, the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber decreased, and the price of Thai cup rubber was stable [1]. - Market situation: National inventory remained stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber was stable [1]. - Strategy: Wait and see [1]. Styrene and Its Derivatives - Market data: From September 12 - 18, 2025, prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and its downstream products such as EPS, ABS, and PS changed. For example, the price of styrene in some regions decreased, and the production profit of some products also changed [1]. - Market situation: The production profit of some styrene - related products changed, and the start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS also showed certain fluctuations [1].