LPG早报-20250919

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall LPG market is expected to remain weak. The domestic market has declined significantly, with the basis weakening. The external market prices have risen, and the internal - external price difference has decreased slightly. The chemical demand has declined, and the supply is abundant in Shandong, the cheapest delivery location [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - Domestic Prices: The low - end price in East China is 4462 (-20), in Shandong is 4530 (-10), and in South China is 4610 (+25). The post - ether carbon four is 4700 (+0). The lowest delivery location is East China [1]. - Basis and Spreads: The basis of the PG main contract has weakened to 51 (-74). The 10 - 11 month spread is 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 month spread is 62 (+3) [1]. External Market and Price Differences - External Market Prices: FEI and CP are 553.05 (-6) and 547.55 (-2.45) dollars/ton respectively. The FEI monthly spread has decreased by 1 to - 6 dollars, and the CP monthly spread is - 11 [1]. - Internal - External Price Differences: PG - CP is 75 (-3); PG - FEI is 67.6 (-9.3). FEI - CP is 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed [1]. Market Conditions and Demand - Market Conditions: The external market prices have risen, and the internal - external price difference has decreased slightly. The freight rates have continued to rise [1]. - Demand: Chemical demand has declined. The PDH operating rate is 70.49% (-2.61), and the operating rates of alkylation and MTBE have also decreased [1]. Inventory and Supply - Inventory: Port inventory and factory inventory have both increased. Incoming shipments have decreased, and external shipments have slightly increased, but demand has narrowed [1]. - Supply: Shandong, the cheapest delivery location, has abundant supply due to incoming resources [1].