集运早报-20250919

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market has a risk of price - cutting recently, and the futures market is expected to remain weak. Contract 12 has a relatively high - neutral valuation and may decline more in the short term. In the medium term, there are multiple upward drivers. Contract 02 has a higher cost - performance for long - positions compared to 12, and contract 04 has a high valuation, is suitable for short - positions in the short term but has low liquidity [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - Contract Prices and Changes: EC2510 closed at 1105.9 with a - 0.34% change; EC2512 at 1645.3 with a - 1.60% change; EC2602 at 1566.1 with a - 0.80% change; EC2604 at 1255.2 with a - 2.52% change; EC2606 at 1453.5 with a - 1.03% change [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: EC2510 had a trading volume of 19585 and an open interest of 47173 with a change of - 2436; EC2512 had a volume of 9304 and an open interest of 20570 with a change of 183; EC2602 had a volume of 1549 and an open interest of 7215 with a change of 110; EC2604 had a volume of 1289 and an open interest of 8534 with a change of 200; EC2606 had a volume of 68 and an open interest change of 12 [2]. - Monthly Spread: EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 539.4, with a day - on - day increase of 22.9 and a week - on - week decrease of 86.8; EC2512 - 2602 spread was 79.2, with a day - on - day decrease of 14.0 and a week - on - week decrease of 30.2 [2]. Spot Index Information - SCFIS (European Line): As of 2025/9/15, it was 0, down 100.00% from the previous period and - 11.68% from two periods ago [2]. - SCFI: As of 2025/9/12, it was 1154 dollars/TEU, down 12.24% from the previous period and - 11.21% from two periods ago [2]. - CCFI: As of 2025/9/12, it was 1537.28 points, down 6.19% from the previous period and - 2.79% from two periods ago [2]. - NCFI: As of 2025/9/12, it was 729.42 points, down 14.78% from the previous period and - 7.92% from two periods ago [2]. Recent European Line Quotation - Week 39: The average quotation was 1600 dollars (equivalent to 1150 points). MSK was initially 1500 dollars and then rose to 1570 dollars, PA Alliance was 1550 - 1600 dollars, and OA Alliance was 1600 - 1720 dollars [3]. - Week 40: The average was 1525 dollars (equivalent to 1060 points). MSK opened at 1400 dollars, OOCL dropped to 1500 - 1550 dollars, and YML dropped to 1400 dollars [3]. - Week 41: MSK quoted 1400 dollars [3]. - Thursday: YML lowered the freight rates for Week 39 - 41 to 1300 dollars, the lowest of the year, equivalent to about 900 points. CMA dropped 100 dollars to 1600 dollars, and EMC quoted 1500 dollars for Week 40 [3]. News - On September 19, a Hamas senior official stated that the organization would not conduct negotiations currently due to Israel's continuous attacks. On the same day, the US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on a cease - fire in Gaza [3].