广发早知道：汇总版-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - The overall market shows a complex situation with various factors influencing different sectors. The Fed's interest rate cuts, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics in different industries all play important roles in determining the market trends. For example, in the stock index futures market, the A - share market shows a trend of rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon after overseas interest rate cuts; in the bond market, the situation is still intertwined with multiple factors; and in the commodity market, different commodities have different supply - demand and price trends [2][6][17]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: On Thursday, the major A - share indexes rose in the morning and fell in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.15%, and most sectors and stocks declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also fell, and the 09 contracts are about to expire with the basis close to neutral [2][3]. - News: Domestically, the Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as TikTok. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and inflation is still relatively high [3]. - Funding: On September 18, the A - share trading volume increased significantly, and the central bank conducted a net injection of 1950 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Due to the Fed's interest rate cut and the approaching holiday, it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [4]. Treasury Futures - Market Performance: Treasury futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose [5]. - Funding: The central bank conducted a net injection of 1950 billion yuan, but the tightness of the inter - bank market funds did not change significantly. The influence of the tax period has not completely subsided, and the central bank's hedging efforts at the end of the quarter need to be concerned [6]. - Operation Suggestion: The bond market is still intertwined with multiple factors. It is recommended to operate within the range, and be cautious about chasing up in the short term [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market Review: Trump proposed to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and the US Supreme Court temporarily froze a relevant ruling. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate unchanged, slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening, and limited long - term bond sales [7]. - Market Performance: The market digested the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut, the risk appetite increased, the US stocks strengthened, and gold continued to decline slightly. The international silver price rebounded and rose [9]. - Outlook: The Fed's policy path has dual characteristics, which may suppress the US dollar index. Gold may enter a high - level shock consolidation, and it is recommended to buy at low prices below 3600 US dollars. Silver is expected to be boosted by various factors, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options at high prices [9][11]. - Funding: The positions of gold and silver ETFs remain high, but some institutions have taken profits [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot Quotation: As of September 18, the freight quotes for Shanghai - European basic ports in the next 6 weeks are provided by different shipping companies [12]. - Index: As of September 15, the SCFIS European Line Index fell by 8.06%, and the US West Line Index rose by 37.67%. As of September 12, the SCFI Composite Index fell by 3.21% [12]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased by 7.5% year - on - year. The eurozone's August composite PMI was 51, and the US August manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [12]. - Logic: The futures market was weakly volatile, and the spot inflection point is expected to appear in mid - to - late October. It is possible to pay attention to the upward opportunities of the 12 and 02 contracts in November [13]. - Operation Suggestion: The market is bearish, and it is possible to consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage [13]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of September 19, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the downstream procurement volume increased with improved spot trading [13]. - Macro: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and the previous loose trading may end. Attention should be paid to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading [14]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. The domestic electrolytic copper production in August decreased slightly month - on - month and increased year - on - year. It is expected to decrease in September due to factors such as maintenance and supply shortage [14]. - Demand: The operating rates of copper rod production increased after the copper price callback, but the downstream terminal demand for copper prices above 80,000 yuan is weak [15]. - Inventory: LME copper inventories decreased, while domestic social inventories and COMEX copper inventories increased [16]. - Logic: After the FOMC meeting, the copper price oscillated. The previous loose trading may end, and the market may switch to recovery trading. The supply - demand situation is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides support, and in the short - term, the copper price may be strongly oscillated [17]. - Operation Suggestion: The reference range for the main contract is 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [17]. Alumina - Spot: On September 18, the spot prices of alumina in different regions decreased, and the supply pattern was gradually relaxed with a downward trend in prices [18]. - Supply: In August, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased, and the operating capacity is expected to continue to increase slightly in September. However, some enterprises were affected by factors such as production restrictions and maintenance [19]. - Inventory: As of September 18, the port inventory decreased, and the registered quantity of warehouse receipts increased [19]. - Logic: The alumina futures price oscillated at the bottom. The market is in a situation of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The supply in Guinea has more disturbing factors, which provides short - term support, but the overall supply is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [20]. - Operation Suggestion: The reference range for the main contract is 2900 - 3200 yuan, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 yuan [20]. Aluminum - Spot: On September 18, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the trading activity increased with a rising trend in the premium [21]. - Supply: In August, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the proportion of aluminum water increased, reflecting the consumption resilience [22]. - Demand: The downstream is in the transition stage between the off - season and the peak season, and the operating rates of some industries have recovered [22]. - Inventory: As of September 18, the domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory increased [23]. - Logic: The Fed's interest rate cut and the strengthening of the US dollar index put pressure on the aluminum price. The domestic economic recovery provides support for aluminum demand, but the upward push of macro - factors has weakened. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains high, and the demand improvement needs to be further observed. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [24]. - Operation Suggestion: The reference range for the main contract is 20,600 - 21,000 yuan [24]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On September 18, the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased [25]. - Supply: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the operating rate is expected to increase slightly in September [25]. - Demand: In August, the terminal demand for cast aluminum alloy was weak, and it showed a marginal improvement in September [26]. - Inventory: As of September 18, the social inventory increased, and some areas were close to full capacity [26]. - Logic: The cast aluminum alloy futures price oscillated and fell. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which supports the price. The terminal orders are slightly improving, and the pre - holiday stocking demand will support the spot price. It is expected that the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [27]. - Operation Suggestion: The reference range for the main contract is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan. If the short - term upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is strong, it is possible to consider the long - AD short - AL spread arbitrage when the spread is above 500 [28]. Zinc - Spot: On September 18, the average price of 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the market trading was light [28]. - Supply: The processing fees of zinc concentrate increased, and the production of refined zinc increased. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production will decrease slightly in September [29]. - Demand: The operating rates of primary processing industries generally increased in the peak season, but the procurement was mainly for rigid demand, and the domestic spot premium was at a low level [30]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [31]. - Logic: The zinc price is affected by the expectation of loose supply. The demand in the peak season is fair, and the domestic and foreign markets show differentiation. The upward space is limited, and the downward space is also restricted by factors such as low inventory. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [32]. - Operation Suggestion: The reference range for the main contract is 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [32]. Tin - Spot: On September 18, the price of 1 tin decreased, and the spot market trading improved slightly [33]. - Supply: The domestic tin ore imports in July decreased, and the supply from Africa and Myanmar decreased. The tin ingot imports increased [33][34]. - Demand: The operating rate of the solder industry increased in August, but the overall market is still in a state of "weak supply and demand". Attention should be paid to the demand performance in the "Golden September and Silver October" [34]. - Inventory: As of September 17, the LME inventory remained unchanged, the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory increased [35]. - Logic: The Fed's interest rate cut and the strengthening of the US dollar index put pressure on the tin price. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; otherwise, it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan [36]. - Operation Suggestion: The reference range for the main contract is 265,000 - 285,000 yuan [36]. Nickel - Spot: As of September 18, the average price of electrolytic nickel decreased [37]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level and is expected to increase slightly [37]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating and stainless steel is general, the demand for alloys is good, and the price of nickel sulfate has risen strongly in the short - term but may face pressure in the medium - term [37]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory is at a relatively high level, the domestic social inventory increased, and the bonded area inventory decreased [38]. - Logic: The Fed's interest rate cut did not bring unexpected benefits, and the macro - environment is weak. The supply of nickel ore is generally stable, and the price of nickel iron is strong. The stainless steel demand is weak, and the nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan [39]. - Operation Suggestion: The reference range for the main contract is 120,000 - 125,000 yuan [40]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of September 18, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in some regions decreased [40]. - Raw Materials: The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of nickel iron is strong. The cost of chromium ore provides support, and the price of chromium iron has risen [40]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel is expected to increase in September, mainly in the 300 - series [41]. - Inventory: The social inventory is decreasing slowly, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased [41]. - Logic: The stainless steel price oscillated narrowly. The macro - environment is improving, but the peak - season demand has not been fully realized. The cost provides support, and the inventory pressure has eased. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,800 - 13,400 yuan [42]. - Operation Suggestion: The reference range for the main contract is 12,800 - 13,400 yuan [42]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of September 18, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly, and the market was relatively calm [43]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate increased in August and continued to increase in the week of September 18. The supply is affected by new projects, lithium feldspar processing, and imports [44]. - Demand: The demand is relatively optimistic, and the seasonal performance is not obvious. The orders of battery cells are generally good, and the demand in September and October is expected to increase [44][45]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased in the previous week, with the inventory of smelters decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [45]. - Logic: The Fed's interest rate cut did not bring unexpected benefits, and the domestic policy has been digested. The supply - demand situation is in a tight balance. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [46]. - Operation Suggestion: The reference price range for the main contract is 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [46]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The steel price decreased, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar converged [47]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of raw materials is affected by production restrictions and supply recovery expectations. The profit of steel products has declined significantly since August, and the current profit ranking is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [47]. - Supply: The production of iron elements from January to August increased year - on - year, and it is expected to continue to increase in the first nine months. The production of rebar decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils remained high [47]. - Demand: The apparent consumption of the five major steel products from January to August was basically flat year - on - year, and the demand in August - September decreased seasonally. The supply of rebar decreased and the demand increased, while the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased [47]. - Inventory: The inventory of the five major steel products has increased since August, mainly due to the increase in rebar inventory. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [48]. - View: The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory is slowly increasing. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 3100 - 3350 yuan for rebar and 3300 - 3500 yuan for hot - rolled coils. It is recommended to hold long positions at low prices and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of demand [49]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of September 18, the price of mainstream iron ore powders changed slightly [50]. - Futures: The 2601 and 2605 contracts of iron ore decreased slightly [50]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties is positive [51]. - Demand: As of September 18, the daily average pig iron output, blast furnace operating rate, and capacity utilization rate increased slightly, while the steel mill profitability decreased slightly [52]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment increased significantly last week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The monthly import volume increased [53]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased, the daily average port clearance volume increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [53]. - View: The iron ore market is in a tight - balanced situation. The supply is expected to change, and the demand is supported by the relatively high pig iron output. It is recommended to view the market as oscillating and bullish, with a reference range of 780 - 850 yuan. It is recommended to go long on the 26