建信期货油脂日报-20250919

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: September 19, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review | Futures Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest Change | Special Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2605 | 9258 | 9198 | 9212 | 9090 | 9108 | -150 | -1.62% | 44838 | 89682 | 3604 | | P2601 | 9494 | 9408 | 9428 | 9280 | 9304 | -190 | -2.00% | 627749 | 423179 | -12824 | | Y2605 | 8132 | 8090 | 8114 | 8000 | 8022 | -110 | -1.35% | 48401 | 223676 | -982 | | Y2601 | 8422 | 8352 | 8366 | 8262 | 8284 | -138 | -1.64% | -348953 | 574844 | -13601 | | OI2605 | 9572 | 9533 | 9541 | 9462 | - | -0.80% | 14529 | 47029 | 806 | | OI2601 | 10055 | 9991 | 10010 | 9926 | 9984 | - | -0.71% | 266924 | 326231 | -10512 | [7] Basis Price Information - East China Grade 3 rapeseed oil: September - October: OI2601 + 220; November - December: OI2601 + 230 - East China Grade 1 rapeseed oil: September: OI2601 + 310; October: OI2601 + 330 - East China Grade 1 soybean oil basis price: Spot: Y2601 + 150; October: Y2601 + 160; October - January: Y2601 + 190; February - May: Y2601 + 130; April - July: Y2605 + 200 - East China 24 - degree palm oil liquid oil distribution quote basis: September: P2601 - 50; October: P2601 + 0; October - November: P2601 + 50 [7] Core View - Bullish funds left the market, and the oil and fat market continued to decline. The negative factors mainly came from the external market. The EPA proposed a supplementary rule for the renewable fuel standard to solve the exemption problem of small refineries, but it was not finalized, disappointing the market. Also, the harvest of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseed was approaching, and the harvest pressure and uncertain demand prospects under the trade - war background weighed on the market. Near - term rapeseed oil continued the de - stocking trend, with relatively concentrated supply, and traders mainly tried to sell at higher prices, leading to a continuous increase in the basis price. Attention should be paid to the China - Canada trade situation and the supply of rapeseed raw materials. Recently, the oil and fat market faced pressure on the upside but also had support on the downside. Wait for the technical correction to end. In the long - and medium - term, the oil and fat market is bullish due to the favorable biodiesel policy [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to the data released by shipping surveyor ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 were 742,648 tons, a 2.5% increase compared to 724,191 tons in the same period of August. Exports to China were 11,000 tons, a significant increase from 8,800 tons in the previous month. - According to the data from the Southern Palm Oil Millers Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA), Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 - 15 decreased by 8.05% month - on - month. The fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreased by 6.94% month - on - month, and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreased by 0.21% month - on - month. - According to the data released by shipping surveyor SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 were 404,688 tons, a 24.7% decrease compared to 537,183 tons in the same period of August. Exports to China were 34,000 tons, higher than 14,000 tons in the previous month. [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as the spot price of East China Grade 3 rapeseed oil, East China Grade 4 soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][21]