甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - Methanol: The current trading logic is that port pressure is transmitted to the inland. Although there is seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment in the inland later, the port will continuously form a reverse flow impact. The current price on the disk is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial later. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. The reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will impact inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. It is still necessary to wait before bottom - fishing [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina are destocking, coal - chemical industry is destocking, and social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material inventory and finished product inventory are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The basis for 09 contract is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The external market in Europe, America and Southeast Asia is stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increment for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is the same as the previous month, and the recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD production conversion and US quotation. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is large, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices [3]. - PP (Polypropylene): The upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and the middle - stream of polypropylene are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up is stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material inventory and finished product inventory are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be relieved to a neutral level [3]. - PVC: The basis for the 01 contract remains at - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. The summer seasonal maintenance of northwest devices has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. The recent near - end export orders have slightly declined. The coal sentiment is good, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure with PVC maintenance; the counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price Data: The daily changes of methanol price data include 0 for power coal futures, - 12 for Jiangsu spot, - 13 for South China spot, - 5 for Lunan converted to the disk, - 10 for Southwest converted to the disk, 0 for Hebei converted to the disk, 0 for Northwest converted to the disk, 0 for CFR China, 0 for CFR Southeast Asia, 0 for import profit, - 10 for the main contract basis, and 0 for the MTO profit on the disk [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - Price and Inventory Data: From September 12 to 18, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 850. The daily change of North China LL was - 40, and other prices such as East China LL, East China LD, and East China HD remained unchanged. The import profit was stable, the main contract futures price decreased by 57, the basis decreased by 10, and the two - oil inventory and warehouse receipts remained unchanged [3]. PP (Polypropylene) - Price and Inventory Data: From September 12 to 18, 2025, the Shandong propylene and Northeast Asia propylene prices remained unchanged. The East China PP price decreased by 20, the North China PP price decreased by 22, the main contract futures price decreased by 56, the basis decreased by 10, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 30 [3]. PVC - Price and Profit Data: From September 12 to 18, 2025, the Shandong caustic soda price decreased by 22, the East China price of calcium carbide method decreased by 30, and other prices such as the East China price of ethylene method, the South China price of calcium carbide method remained unchanged. The export profit, Northwest comprehensive profit, and North China comprehensive profit remained unchanged, and the basis remained unchanged [3] [6].