棉花早报-20250919

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the cotton market and concludes that the short - term trend of cotton is oscillating weakly. The market is affected by multiple factors, including high inventory, poor export data, and upcoming new cotton listings, although there are some positive factors such as reduced tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No content is provided for this section. 3.2每日提示 - Fundamentals: The expected national cotton output is 7.22 million tons, with a new high in Xinjiang. Different organizations' forecasts for the 2025/26 season vary. Textile and clothing exports in August were 26.54 billion US dollars, a 5% year - on - year decrease. Cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a 51.6% year - on - year decrease, while棉纱 imports were 130,000 tons, an 18.18% year - on - year increase. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,319 yuan, with a basis of 1,554 yuan (for the 01 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The expected ending inventory in the 2025/26 season by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture in September is 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is one - third over, and the market is sluggish. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, increasing hedging pressure. The resistance level for the main 01 contract is around 14,000 yuan, and the short - term trend is oscillating weakly [4]. 3.3今日关注 No content is provided for this section. 3.4基本面数据 - USDA Forecast: The global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.622 million tons, and consumption is 25.872 million tons, with an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons [4]. - ICAC Forecast: The global cotton production in 2025/26 is 2.59 million tons, consumption is 2.56 million tons, ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, and the global trade volume is 970,000 tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [12]. - Ministry of Agriculture Forecast: In the 2025/26 season, production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4]. 3.5持仓数据 The main position is short - biased with an increasing net short position, and the main trend is unclear [4].