Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand of iron ore are loose, with steel mills' hot metal production starting to decrease and the monthly arrival level at ports decreasing. The port inventory has decreased, and there are plans to introduce crude steel production reduction policies, while the trade war has eased. The market is expected to be in a high - level shock pattern due to reduced domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish factor. The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, also bullish. However, the net position of the main iron ore contract is short and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing, supply arrival at ports this month is lower, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory is decreasing, there will be crude steel production reduction policies, and the trade war is easing, with a neutral outlook [2]. - Basis: The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures - equivalent price is 834, with a basis of 34; the spot price of Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port converted to the futures - equivalent price is 841, with a basis of 41. The spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: Port inventory is 14,456.12 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, with a neutral outlook [2]. - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - Main Position: The net position of the main iron ore contract is short and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: With reduced domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans, a high - level shock pattern is expected [2]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish Factors: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventory, import losses, and rising downstream steel prices with strong tolerance for high - priced raw materials [6]. - Bearish Factors: Increased future shipments and weak terminal demand [6]. Other Aspects - The report also includes information on iron ore port spot prices [8], iron ore futures - spot basis [10], iron ore import profit [13], iron ore shipments [16], iron ore port and steel mill inventories [18], iron ore arrival and port clearance volumes [20], iron ore daily consumption [22], steel enterprise production conditions [25], and iron ore daily port trading volume and steel mills' daily hot metal production [27].
铁矿石早报（2025-9-19）-20250919
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-19 02:17