大越期货油脂早报-20250919

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have eased, affecting the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. As it enters the production - increasing season, the supply of palm oil will increase [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8358, with a basis of 74, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year [2] - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8200 - 8600 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the production - increasing season [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9366, with a basis of 62, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year [3] - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have turned to short positions [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9600 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the production - increasing season [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10106, with a basis of 122, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Lido: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Lido: Palm oil tremor season (the specific meaning is not clear from the text) [5] - Lido: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]