大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For LLDPE and PP, the market is expected to be volatile today. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to fluctuations in crude oil prices, providing cost support. The demand for agricultural films and downstream products such as pipes and woven plastics is gradually entering the peak season, but the year - on - year demand is still weak, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Crude oil prices are fluctuating. The demand for agricultural films is entering the peak season, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films has rebounded. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7220 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 32, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [4] - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 551,000 tons (+6,000 tons), which is bearish [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract has turned long, which is bullish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is volatile. With geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, the demand for agricultural films is in the peak season but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4] - Likely Factors: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season [5] - Negative Factors: Year - on - year demand is still weak [5] - Main Logic: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [6] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic situation shows an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. Crude oil prices are fluctuating. The downstream demand for pipes, woven plastics, etc., is gradually entering the peak season. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6850 (0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 76, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.1%, which is bearish [7] - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 551,000 tons (-25,000 tons), which is neutral [7] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract has increased, which is bearish [7] - Expectation: The PP main contract is volatile. With geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, the demand for downstream products such as pipes and woven plastics has improved, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [7] - Likely Factors: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season [8] - Negative Factors: Year - on - year demand is still weak [8] - Main Logic: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [9] Market Data - LLDPE: The price of the spot delivery product is 7220 (-10), the price of the 01 contract is 7188 (-57), the basis is 32, the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons (+6,000 tons), and the social inventory is 547,000 tons (-14,000 tons) [10] - PP: The price of the spot delivery product is 6850 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6926 (-56), the basis is - 76, the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons (-25,000 tons), and the social inventory is 283,000 tons (-12,000 tons) [10] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend. The import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have also increased. The import dependence has decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17]