大越期货玻璃早报-20250919

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate mainly in the short term. The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, but the terminal demand is sluggish, and the inventory has rebounded. It is expected that glass will show a weak and fluctuating trend [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Glass production profit has declined, the industry is at a high level of cold repair, and the operating rate and output have dropped to the lowest level in the same period in history. The downstream deep - processing orders are generally weak, worse than the same period in previous years, and the real - estate terminal demand is weak [2] - Basis: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1080 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2601 is 1208 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 128 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot [2] - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 60.908 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.10% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2] - Disk: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [2] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position increases [2] - Expectation: The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate mainly in the short term [2] Influence Factor Summary - Bullish Factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3] - Bearish Factors: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, the order volume of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period; the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original sheet inventory; the market sentiment of "anti - involution" has subsided [4] Main Logic - The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, but the terminal demand is sluggish, and the inventory has rebounded. It is expected that glass will show a weak and fluctuating trend [5] Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.11% from the previous value; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - board is 1080 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous value; the main basis is - 128 yuan, a decrease of 16.88% from the previous value [6] Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11] Fundamentals - Cost Side - Not provided in detail Fundamentals - Production - The number of operating float glass production lines in the country is 225, with an operating rate of 76.01%, and the number of operating glass production lines is at a historical low in the same period; the daily melting capacity of national float glass is 160,200 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing a stable rebound [22][24] Fundamentals - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons [28] Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 60.908 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.10% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2][42] Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [43]