大越期货纯碱早报-20250919

Report Overview - The report provides an analysis of the soda ash market, including daily views, influencing factors, main logic, and market data [2][3][4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core View - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][5] 3. Summary by Directory Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plant maintenance is rare, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume continues to decline, terminal demand is average, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historically high level for the same period; bearish [2] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,306 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 96 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot; bearish [2] - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a 2.33% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; bearish [2] - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; neutral [2] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2] - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: The peak maintenance period this year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3] - Negative Factors: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, weakening the demand for soda ash; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [4] Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [5] Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,306 yuan/ton, a 2.10% decrease from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, a 2.02% decrease; the main basis is - 96 yuan, a 3.03% decrease [6] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,210 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease from the previous day [11] Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process is - 96.30 yuan/ton, and in East China's co - production process is - 92.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [14] Capacity and Production - The weekly industry operation rate of soda ash is 87.29%. The weekly production of soda ash is 761,100 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 421,700 tons, and the production is at a historical high [17][19] New Capacity - From 2023 to 2025, a large amount of new soda ash production capacity has been added or is planned, with a total planned capacity of 1,570 tons and an actual production capacity of 100 tons in 2025 [20] Demand Analysis - Sales - to - Production Ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 103.23% [23] - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operation rate of 76.01% is stable; the price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling, and under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [26][32] Inventory Analysis - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a 2.33% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operation rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand differences, and growth rates [36]