Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall in the third and fourth quarters of this year. If short - term bullish factors are realized and the copper price corrects, long positions can be considered for mid - term layout below 79,500 yuan, or put options below 78,000 yuan can be sold [1]. - For aluminum, with a small increase in supply and improved downstream开工, pay attention to demand. Hold long positions at low prices under the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to inter - month and inter - market reverse arbitrage [1]. - For zinc, short - term unilateral can be used as a short - side configuration, and long positions in inter - market positive arbitrage can be continued [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamental situation is weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Indonesian forestry department's takeover of part of the nickel mine [3][4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamental situation remains weak, and it is affected by the Indonesian incident and macro - anti - involution expectations [6]. - For lead, the price is expected to fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold long positions near the cost line in the medium and long term [9]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand will be in a tight balance in September and October, and the price will fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle in the long term [10]. - For lithium carbonate, the price has strong downward support during the peak season before the supply - side disturbance is realized, and the price elasticity is high after the disturbance is realized [12]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory: Copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan this week and broke through on Thursday and Friday. The domestic social inventory of copper did not accumulate despite the increase in imported copper arrivals. The downstream is in the stage of consuming finished - product inventory [1]. - Premium: The domestic spot premium declined slightly, and the internal - external positive arbitrage has room [1]. - Macro: Copper benefits from the global fiscal and monetary double - easing, and attention should be paid to the possible realization of short - term bullish factors after the FOMC meeting next week [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory: Aluminum prices declined slightly this week. The supply increased slightly, and the inventory is expected to decline in September [1]. - Demand: Downstream开工 improved, but overseas demand declined significantly [1]. - Strategy: Hold long positions at low prices under the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to inter - month and inter - market reverse arbitrage [1]. Zinc - Price and Inventory: Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Domestic social inventory continued to rise, and overseas LME inventory decreased [2]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic supply is affected by smelter maintenance and high - volume imported zinc ore. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand has production resistance [2]. - Strategy: Short - term unilateral can be used as a short - side configuration, and long positions in inter - market positive arbitrage can be continued [2]. Nickel - Price and Inventory: Nickel prices fluctuated slightly this week. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas inventory increased due to warehousing [3]. - Supply and Demand: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak [3]. - News: The Indonesian parade subsided, and the Indonesian forestry department took over part of the nickel mine [4]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory: Stainless steel prices were stable this week. The inventory in Xijiao and Wuxi remained stable, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [6]. - Supply and Demand: Supply is expected to recover, and demand is mainly for rigid needs [6]. - Cost: The price of nickel iron remained stable, and the price of chrome iron increased slightly [6]. Lead - Price and Inventory: Lead prices rose this week. The LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000 tons [7]. - Supply and Demand: Supply is expected to be tight, and demand is in the peak season but not prosperous [7]. - Price Forecast: The price is expected to fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7]. Tin - Price and Inventory: Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Domestic inventory fluctuated, and LME inventory rebounded from a low level [9]. - Supply and Demand: Supply is short - term tight, and demand has limited elasticity [9]. - Strategy: Wait and see in the short term and hold long positions near the cost line in the medium and long term [9]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory: The basis of industrial silicon changed this week, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [10]. - Supply and Demand: Supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand will be in a tight balance in September and October [10]. - Price Trend: The price will fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle in the long term [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory: Lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely this week. The futures price dropped significantly in the middle of the week, and the basis strengthened slightly [12]. - Supply and Demand: The supply is affected by compliance disturbances, and the demand is in the peak season but the destocking amplitude is small [12]. - Price Elasticity: The price has strong downward support during the peak season before the supply - side disturbance is realized, and the price elasticity is high after the disturbance is realized [12].
永安期货有色早报-20250919
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-09-19 02:13