大越期货燃料油早报-20250919

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that China's latest export quota policy may stimulate short - term demand for fuel oil, and Asian refinery autumn maintenance could tighten supply. Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is strengthening. However, with the decline in crude oil prices, limited news support, and cautious downstream sentiment, the fuel oil market is expected to experience a short - term decline and oscillate. FU2601 is expected to operate in the 2770 - 2810 range, and LU2511 in the 3380 - 3420 range [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: China's export quota policy may boost short - term demand, and Asian refinery autumn maintenance could tighten supply. Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is strengthening. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is 112 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur is 95 yuan/ton, with spot premiums over futures, indicating a bullish signal [3]. - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory on September 17 was 2315.9 million barrels, an increase of 12 million barrels, a neutral situation [3]. - Market: Prices are above the 20 - day line, which is flat, a neutral signal [3]. - Main positions: High - sulfur main positions are short, with short positions decreasing (bearish); low - sulfur main positions are long, with long positions decreasing (bullish) [3]. - Expectation: Crude oil prices closed down, news support is limited, downstream sentiment is cautious, and the shipping market awaits the Christmas stocking season. Fuel oil is expected to decline and oscillate in the short term. FU2601 will operate in the 2770 - 2810 range, and LU2511 in the 3380 - 3420 range [3]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Concerns - Bullish factors: Potential intensification of sanctions against Russia [4]. - Bearish factors: Uncertainty in demand optimism and weak upstream crude oil prices [4]. - Market drivers: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, while demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Futures prices: FU main contract futures price dropped from 2833 to 2807, a decrease of 0.92%; LU main contract futures price dropped from 3447 to 3428, a decrease of 0.55% [5]. - Spot prices: Most fuel oil spot prices showed small fluctuations. For example, Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil rose from 393.37 to 397.73, an increase of 1.11% [6]. 3.4 Spread Data No relevant data analysis is provided in the report. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory has fluctuated recently. On September 17, it was 2315.9 million barrels, an increase of 12 million barrels compared to the previous period [3][8].