白糖早报-20250919

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The ISO predicts a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous estimate. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons [5]. - International raw sugar has fallen below 16 cents again, and domestic Zhengzhou sugar has oscillated downward, hitting a two - year low. With the approaching end of the domestic consumption peak season and a significant increase in imported sugar, the main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures generally oscillates weakly [6]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global sugar production, expected global supply surplus in the new season, the oscillation of foreign sugar prices around 16 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import impact [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: The ISO expects a 231,000 - ton global sugar supply deficit in the 25/26 season, a large reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 40.6 million tons, down 3.1% from the previous estimate. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, up 60,000 tons year - on - year; in July, the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, down 68,500 tons year - on - year. The situation is neutral [5]. - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 5960, and the basis is 486 (01 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is positive [7]. - Inventory: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.16 million tons, which is positive [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is negative [7]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is negative [7]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - Supply - demand situation: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. The ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton deficit, Czarnikow predicts a 4.7 - million - ton surplus, and StoneX predicts a 1.21 - million - ton surplus [36]. - Sugar production and sales in China: As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, up 60,000 tons year - on - year; in July, the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, down 68,500 tons year - on - year [5]. - Price and cost: The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff has shown different levels in different months from 2024 to 2025 [40]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is negative [7]