沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250919

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai Nickel (2510), it is expected to oscillate around the 20 - day moving average. The long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, but there are short - term bullish factors such as the potential impact of Indonesia's mine inspection and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand boost [2]. - For Stainless Steel (2511), it is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation. The market is neutral to bullish in the short term due to factors like firm nickel ore prices, rising nickel iron prices, and good inventory reduction during the "Golden September and Silver October" [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - On September 18, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was at 120,940, down 850 from the previous day; the London Nickel was at 15,335, down 110; the Stainless Steel main contract was at 12,875, down 60. Among the spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was at 122,700, down 100 [11]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of September 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 27,500 tons, with the futures inventory at 23,529 tons, an increase of 514 tons and 1,815 tons respectively. On September 18, LME nickel inventory was 228,450, a decrease of 18; Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipts were 25,866, a decrease of 275 [13][14]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On September 12, the inventory in Wuxi was 583,700 tons, in Foshan was 297,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,012,500 tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons month - on - month. The 300 - series inventory was 623,700 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons. On September 18, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 90,146, a decrease of 5,119 [18][19]. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - On September 18, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 29 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. High - nickel (8 - 12) was at 954.5 yuan per nickel point, up 0.5 [22]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost was 13,155, the scrap steel production cost was 13,562, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,859 [24]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 123,586 yuan per ton [27]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors include the demand boost expectation during the "Golden September and Silver October", anti - involution policies, and cost support at 120,000 [6]. - Bearish factors include the continuous significant year - on - year increase in domestic production with no new demand growth points, and the year - on - year decline in ternary battery loading [6].