贵金属早报-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the unexpected decline in US unemployment benefit claims and the continued impact of the Fed's interest rate cut, both gold and silver prices have fallen. The Fed's meeting was less dovish than market expectations, leading to the realization of expectations and price drops. Gold and silver price sentiments have converged, and investors are advised to wait for buying opportunities after price corrections [4][6] - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall, and silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. However, tariff concerns have a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [10][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Gold: US unemployment benefit claims decreased more than expected, and the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut continued, causing the gold price to fall. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields increased, the US dollar index rose by 0.34% to 97.37, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 1.07% to $3,678.2 per ounce. The gold basis was -1.7, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 900 kilograms to 54,126 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position decreased [4][5] - Silver: Similar to gold, the silver price also fell due to the above - mentioned factors. COMEX silver futures fell 0.12% to $42.1 per ounce. The silver basis was -48, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 9,833 kilograms to 1,221,428 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position decreased [6] 3.2 Daily Tips - Gold: The Fed's meeting was less dovish than expected, leading to a price drop. The premium of Shanghai gold continued to converge to -9.2 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment was limited. The gold price sentiment converged, and investors should wait for buying opportunities after the price correction [4] - Silver: Similar to gold, the silver price sentiment converged, and the premium of Shanghai silver converged to about 290 yuan/kilogram. Investors should wait for buying opportunities after the price correction [6] 3.3 Today's Focus - 07:30: Japan's August CPI - Time TBD: Huawei Connect 2025 - Time TBD: Bank of Japan's interest rate decision - 14:30: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference on monetary policy - Time TBD: Eurogroup meeting - 20:30: Canada's July retail sales - Next day 02:30: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (2027 FOMC voter) participates in a fireside chat on the impact of AI on labor development and economic mobility - Next day 04:00: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman participates in a CNBC program - September 20 - 23, 2025: 2025 World Manufacturing Convention in Hefei, Anhui Province [15] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Gold: The logic for gold price trends is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and gold prices are difficult to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the gold price sentiment is high, still prone to rise and difficult to fall [10] - Silver: The logic for silver price trends is that it still mainly follows gold prices. However, tariff concerns have a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. There are both positive and negative factors affecting silver prices, such as global turmoil, rising inflation, and tariff concerns on the positive side, and the end of interest rate cuts, improved economic expectations, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict on the negative side [13][14] 3.5 Position Data - Gold: The main net long position decreased. For example, on September 18, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 0.03% compared with the previous day, the short position decreased by 1.46%, and the net long position increased by 0.76% [31] - Silver: The main net long position decreased. For example, on September 18, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 1.06% compared with the previous day, the short position decreased by 1.83%, and the net long position increased by 0.94% [32]