大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch with strong supply and weak demand in the lithium carbonate market is difficult to change, mainly due to capacity mismatch [8][9][13]. - The cost of externally - purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica shows different trends, with production at a loss; the cost of the salt - lake end is significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to oscillate in the range of 71,640 - 74,120 [9]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, production was 85,240 physical tons, and next - month's production is predicted to be 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and next - month's import is predicted to be 19,500 tons, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 96,217 tons, a 0.81% week - on - week increase; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,545 tons, a 0.09% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - Cost: The daily - based price of 6% concentrate CIF increased, but it is lower than the historical average [9]. - Expectations: The cost of externally - purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 75,430 yuan/ton, a 0.16% daily increase, with a production loss of 3,049 yuan/ton; the cost of externally - purchased lithium mica is 77,345 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, with a production loss of 6,951 yuan/ton; the production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost at the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. - Fundamentals: Neutral. The basis on September 18 was 570 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The overall inventory was 138,512 tons, a 1.12% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The MA20 on the disk is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract futures closed below the MA20. The net position of the main traders is short, with a reduction in short positions [10]. -利多: Manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [11]. -利空: The supply at the ore and salt - lake ends remains high, with limited decline; the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - Futures closing prices: Most contracts showed a downward trend, with declines ranging from 0.94% to 1.46% [16]. - Basis: Most contracts showed an increase, with increases ranging from 91.74% to 240.00% [16]. - Registered warrants: 39,354 lots, a 0.31% increase [16]. - Upstream prices: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 0.12%, while other prices remained mostly unchanged [16]. - Positive electrode materials and lithium battery prices: Most prices showed a slight increase, with increases ranging from 0.13% to 0.37% [16]. 3.2.2 Supply - side Data - Lithium ore: The monthly production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica showed different trends, and the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased by 34.73%. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 21.77%, with a 27.58% decrease in imports from Chile [19]. - Lithium carbonate: The monthly production was 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase. The monthly net import volume decreased by 21.94%. The supply - demand balance was - 2,090 tons [19]. - Lithium hydroxide: The monthly production was 21,820 tons, a 13.31% decrease. The monthly net export volume decreased by 73.89% [19]. 3.2.3 Demand - side Data - Lithium battery: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased, and the monthly power battery loading volume increased by 11.81% [19]. - Ternary precursor: The monthly production was 78,440 tons, a 6.99% increase. The supply - demand balance was - 4,154 tons [19]. - Ternary material: The monthly production was 73,440 tons, a 9.55% increase [19]. - Lithium iron phosphate/phosphate: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 78,440 tons, a 8.55% increase [19]. - New energy vehicle: The production was 1,391,000 vehicles, a 11.91% increase, and the sales volume was 1.262 million vehicles, a 5.04% decrease [19].