大越期货PVC期货早报-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PVC industry is bearish [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on PVC is bearish, with positive factors including supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits, while negative factors include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high inventory and slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [13] - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - The daily view is bearish, with positive factors such as supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages; negative factors include overall supply pressure rebound, high inventory levels, slow inventory consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [13] - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in scheduled production [7] 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream开工率 was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 38.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 33.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 74.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.809 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7] 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.40% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 6.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,439.25 yuan/ton, with the profit decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8] 3.2.4 Basis - On September 18, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,820 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 103 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9] 3.2.5 Inventory - Factory inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. Social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.2 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% [9] 3.2.6 Disk - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20, which is neutral [9] 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [9] 3.2.8 Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. Supply pressure has increased this week, and maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with an expected increase in scheduled production. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,894 - 4,953 [9]