大越期货豆粕早报-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Bean Meal: The US soybeans are oscillating downward. With the start of US soybean harvesting and the lack of results in Sino - US trade negotiations, the US soybeans are oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic bean meal is also oscillating downward, affected by the decline of US soybeans, with good recent demand as support and technical oscillatory consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans in September and the discount of spot prices are suppressing the upward height of the futures market. In the short term, it may return to an oscillatory pattern. The expected trading range for Bean Meal M2601 is between 2960 and 3020 [8]. - Soybeans: US soybeans are oscillating downward, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic soybeans are bottoming out and rising, affected by US soybeans and technical oscillatory consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans are suppressing the futures market. In the short term, it is affected by the interaction of the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals. The expected trading range for Soybean A2511 is between 3840 and 3940 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. With relatively good recent weather in US soybean - producing areas, the US soybean market is oscillating upward under the relatively positive influence of US agricultural report data, and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth and harvesting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in August. The inventory of bean meal in oil mills entered a relatively high level in August. With the weather of US soybeans and Sino - US trade negotiations entering a critical period, affected by the relatively positive data of the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, bean meal is short - term oscillating strongly. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of bean meal demand supports the price expectation of bean meal. Coupled with the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, bean meal has returned to an oscillatory pattern within a range. - The inventory of bean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the variables of the Sino - US tariff war, bean meal is short - term oscillating strongly, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bean Meal: - Positive Factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; relatively low current inventory of domestic oil mills; and variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Negative Factors: High total arrivals of imported soybeans in September; the end of Brazilian soybean harvesting and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in South American soybeans [13]. - Soybeans: - Positive Factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [14]. - Negative Factors: The continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppressing the price expectation of beans [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Bean Meal: - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price is 2910 (in East China), and the basis is - 83, indicating a discount to the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The inventory of bean meal in oil mills is 113.62 million tons, a 5.32% increase from last week's 107.88 million tons, and a 15.76% decrease compared with 134.88 million tons in the same period last year [8]. - Soybeans: - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price is 4140, and the basis is 236, indicating a premium to the futures price [10]. - Inventory: The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 731.7 million tons, a 5% increase from last week's 682.53 million tons, and a 6.17% increase compared with 689.18 million tons in the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - Bean Meal: The long positions of the main contract holders are decreasing, and funds are flowing out [8]. - Soybeans: The long positions of the main contract holders are increasing, and funds are flowing in [10].