大越期货沥青期货早报-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bearish, with supply pressure still high and demand recovery weak. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term, and the market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The price of asphalt 2511 is expected to oscillate between 3405 - 3449 [7][8][9] - Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support [11] - Bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply Side: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 509,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 685,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. Refineries reduced production this week, and supply pressure may decrease next week [7] - Demand Side: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 28.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the开工 rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the开工 rate of modified asphalt was 15.8893%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt was 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes was 33.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points. Overall, current demand is below the historical average [7] - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8] - Basis: On September 18, the spot price in Shandong was 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 93 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9] - Inventory: Social inventory was 1.225 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%; factory inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42%. Social and factory inventories continued to decline, while port inventory continued to increase [9] - Market: MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [9] - Main Position: The net position of the main players was short, and short positions decreased [9] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's asphalt market, including futures contract prices, inventory, production, and profit. For example, the price of the 01 - contract decreased by 0.47% compared to the previous value, and the social inventory decreased by 3.54% [16] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis Trend: It shows the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China from 2020 - 2025 [18][19] - Spread Analysis: - Main Contract Spread: Displays the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [21][22] - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: Illustrates the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 - 2025 [24][25] - Crude Oil Crack Spread: Presents the historical trends of crude oil crack spreads for asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 - 2025 [27][28][29] - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: Shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [31][33] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trends - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [34][35] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: Displays the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [36][37] - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: Shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 - 2025 [39][40][41] - Supply Side: - Shipment Volume: Presents the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [42][43] - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: Displays the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 [44][45] - Production: Shows the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [47][48] - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: Illustrates the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025 [51][53] - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: Displays the historical local refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [54][55] - 开工 Rate: Shows the historical weekly 开工 rate of asphalt from 2021 - 2025 [57][58] - Maintenance Loss Estimate: Presents the historical trend of maintenance loss estimates from 2018 - 2025 [59][60] - Inventory: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: Displays the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025 [62][64][65] - Social and Factory Inventory: Shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 - 2025 [66][67] - Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio: Presents the historical trend of the factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025 [69][70] - Import and Export Situation: - Export and Import Trends: Displays the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [72][73] - Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend: Shows the historical trend of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 - 2025 [75][76][77] - Demand Side: - Petroleum Coke Production: Displays the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025 [78][79] - Apparent Consumption: Shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [81][82] - Downstream Demand: - Highway Construction and Related Data: Presents the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 [84][85][86] - Downstream Machinery Demand: Shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [88][89][91] - Asphalt 开工 Rate: - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt 开工 Rate: Displays the historical 开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [93][94] - Asphalt 开工 Rate by Use: Shows the historical 开工 rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [96][97] - Downstream 开工 Situation: Presents the historical 开工 rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [99][100][102] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import and export volume, and inventory data [104][105]