大越期货原油早报-20250919

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight oil prices rose and then fell. The market was observing potential additional sanctions from the EU on Russia, which supported oil prices. However, Trump's remarks after meeting with the UK Prime Minister to lower oil prices caused a significant drop in oil prices, and the oil price rebound was blocked again. The market will continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and long - term investors should hold and observe. The short - term price will operate within the range of 485 - 495, and long - term investors should hold long positions for observation [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Russia's August seaborne oil product exports increased by 8.9% month - on - month to 9440000 tons due to refinery maintenance completion and increased fuel production. The Kuwaiti oil minister expects oil demand to increase after the US interest rate cut, especially in Asia. US and Chinese flight numbers are decreasing after the summer travel season, and distillate inventories increased by 4 million barrels to 124.68 million barrels, raising concerns about demand in the world's largest oil - consuming country [3]. - Basis: On September 18, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.80 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.83 per barrel. The basis was $32.19 per barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Inventory: US API crude oil inventory decreased by 3.42 million barrels in the week ending September 12, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.565 million barrels. EIA inventory decreased by 9.285 million barrels in the same period, far exceeding the expected decrease of 0.857 million barrels. Cushing area inventory decreased by 0.296 million barrels in the week ending September 12. As of September 18, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.401 million barrels [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - Main Position: As of September 9, both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long, but the number of long positions decreased [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump's Remarks: Trump expressed disappointment with Putin and believed that lowering oil prices was the key to ending the conflict. He also hinted at increasing production from the North Sea to lower oil prices. He said it was not the right time to ask Putin to stop the war and mentioned his past efforts to promote a summit between Putin and Zelensky [5]. - Global Oil Inventory: Global oil inventories observed by the IEA increased for the sixth consecutive month. In July, global oil inventories increased by 26.5 million barrels, with a cumulative increase of 187 million barrels this year. However, global oil inventories were still 67 million barrels lower than the five - year average. OECD member countries' commercial oil inventories increased by 6.9 million barrels. In August, global oil inventories remained basically unchanged. It is expected that global inventories will increase at a rate of 2.5 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025 due to supply exceeding demand [5]. - Hungary's Stance: Hungarian officials oppose prematurely stopping the import of Russian fossil fuels without viable alternatives, stating that it would endanger national energy security. The EU plans to gradually stop importing Russian gas and oil by the end of 2027, which Hungary and Slovakia oppose [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Positive Factors: None mentioned. - Negative Factors: Institutional monthly reports have a weak outlook for the future, and the trade relationship between the US and other economies remains tense [6]. - Market Drivers: In the short - term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, and the risk of trade tariff issues is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude decreased, with declines of 1.52%, 1.23%, 0.70%, and 0.56% respectively [7]. - Spot Quotes: The spot prices of various types of crude oil, including UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, etc., all decreased, with declines ranging from 0.23% to 1.07% [9]. - API Inventory: The API inventory decreased by 3.42 million barrels in the week ending September 12 [10]. - EIA Inventory: The EIA inventory decreased by 9.285 million barrels in the week ending September 12 [14]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Fund Net - Long Position: As of September 9, the net - long position of the WTI crude fund was 81844, a decrease of 20584 [17]. - Brent Crude Fund Net - Long Position: As of September 9, the net - long position of the Brent crude fund was 209578, a decrease of 41476 [18].