《特殊商品》日报-20250919

1. Glass and Soda Ash 1.1 Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 1.2 Core View Yesterday, the market sentiment weakened, and the glass and soda ash futures markets both corrected. The fundamental problem of over - supply still exists. For soda ash, although the inventory has not increased recently, it has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. In the medium term, the downstream demand for soda ash will remain at the previous rigid - demand level. For glass, although the spot market transactions were good at the beginning of the week, the inventory in some mid - stream areas remains high, and the deep - processing orders are still weak. In the long - term, the industry needs to clear out excess capacity. Short - term sentiment may drive the spot market, but the sustainability needs to be tracked. For soda ash, it is advisable to short on rebounds; for glass, track policy implementation and mid - to - downstream stocking performance during the peak season [1]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: Glass prices in the central China region increased by 0.88%, and glass futures contracts 2505 and 2509 rose by 0.15% and 0.22% respectively. Soda ash futures contract 2509 rose by 0.28%, while 2505 fell by 0.14% [1]. - Supply: Soda ash's weekly output decreased by 2.02% to 74.57 million tons, and the start - up rate dropped by 2.02% to 85.53%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 0.47% to 15.95 million tons, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [1]. - Inventory: Glass inventory decreased by 1.10% to 6090.80, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33% to 175.56 million tons, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 10.69% to 61.49 million tons [1]. - Real Estate Data: The new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [1]. 2. Logs 2.1 Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2.2 Core View Yesterday, the log futures market closed down. The spot price of the main deliverable product remained unchanged. The inventory increased, and the demand showed a slight increase. The arrival volume continued to be low, and the price was supported by the cost. It is recommended to go long on dips. Future attention should be paid to the sales volume during the seasonal peak season [2]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - Futures and Spot Prices: Log futures contracts 2511, 2601, 2603, and 2605 all fell, with the 2511 contract closing at 801.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 7.5 yuan/cubic meter. The spot prices of radiation pine and spruce in major ports remained unchanged [2]. - Cost: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate and the import theoretical cost changed little [2]. - Supply: The monthly port shipments from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 3.87% to 166.6 million cubic meters, and the number of ships decreased by 6.38% to 44 [2]. - Inventory and Demand: As of September 12, the national total inventory of coniferous logs increased by 80,000 cubic meters to 302 million cubic meters, and the daily average outbound volume increased by 0.17 million cubic meters to 6.29 million cubic meters [2]. 3. Rubber 3.1 Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2.2 Core View The demand for natural rubber is not as expected, and some enterprises may control production flexibly. The supply is affected by the rainy season and typhoons, but the expected increase in supply in the future weakens the cost support. With the approaching of the holiday, the risk - aversion sentiment of funds increases, and the commodity macro - sentiment weakens. It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly in the short - term, with the 01 contract trading in the range of 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to the raw - material output in the main production areas during the peak season and the impact of the La Nina phenomenon on supply [3]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - Spot Prices and Basis: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber decreased by 1.66%, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.99%, and the price of cup rubber increased by 0.88% [3]. - Monthly Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 20.00%, the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 12.50% [3]. - Fundamentals: In July, Thailand's rubber production increased by 1.61%, Indonesia's increased by 12.09%, and India's decreased by 2.17%. China's production decreased by 1.27%. In August, domestic tire production increased by 9.10%, and tire exports decreased by 5.46% [3]. - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.66%, and the natural - rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1.30% [3]. 4. Polysilicon 4.1 Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 4.2 Core View The industry self - regulation meeting was held again this week, and some leading enterprises plan to cut production. The increase in downstream prices, the meeting, and the low inventory of some enterprises support the rise of the polysilicon industry. Currently, low - price polysilicon resources are scarce, while high - price resources face some resistance from downstream. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to fluctuate in the short - term [4]. 4.3 Summary by Directory - Spot Prices and Basis: The average price of N - type re - feed material increased by 0.10%, and the N - type material basis increased by 35.64% [4]. - Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads: The main contract decreased by 0.53%, and some monthly spreads changed significantly, such as the increase of the "current month - continuous first" spread by 80.00% [4]. - Fundamentals: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 100.00% to 0, while monthly production increased by 23.31% to 13.17 million tons. Monthly polysilicon imports increased by 40.30% to 0.11 million tons, and net exports decreased by 14.92% to 0.11 million tons [4]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 100.00% to 0 [4]. 5. Industrial Silicon 5.1 Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 5.2 Core View From the cost perspective, raw - material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will increase during the dry season, raising the cost of industrial silicon. Although the production of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the future, the supply pressure will be reduced. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the main price fluctuation range expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [5]. 5.3 Summary by Directory - Spot Prices and Main - Contract Basis: The price of East China's oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis increased by 15.58%. The price of Xinjiang's 99 - silicon increased by 0.57%, and the basis increased by 18.80% [5]. - Monthly Spreads: Some monthly spreads changed, such as the 2510 - 2511 spread increasing by 25.00% [5]. - Fundamentals: Monthly national industrial - silicon production increased by 14.01% to 38.57 million tons, and the national start - up rate increased by 6.20% to 55.87%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 11.66%, and polysilicon production increased by 23.31% [5]. - Inventory: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.07%, Yunnan's increased by 5.45%, and the social inventory increased by 0.74% [5].