《农产品》日报-20250919

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Affected by the decline of US soybean oil futures, the crude palm oil futures have adjusted at a high level. Supported by potential positive factors such as slow - down or decline in production due to rainstorms and continuous improvement in exports, the crude palm oil futures may return above 4,500 ringgit. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures market is in high - level shock adjustment, and there is a risk of a rapid downward break in prices [1]. - Soybean oil: The biofuel blending obligation redistribution proposal of the US Environmental Protection Agency lacks a clear mechanism for small refinery exemptions, leading to short - selling of CBOT soybean oil futures. In the domestic market, soybean oil supply is sufficient, and consumption is increasing. The market is concerned about the soybean import volume in the fourth quarter [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch - In the short term, the market supply and demand are slightly loose, the futures price fluctuates weakly, but there is strong support around 2,150. In the medium term, the situation remains weak, and attention should be paid to the new grain purchase rhythm and opening price [2]. 2.3 Meal - The bio - diesel blending policy has high uncertainty, the demand prospect of US soybeans is unclear, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. The domestic concern about supply in the fourth quarter is gradually alleviated, but there are many short - term negative factors, suppressing soybean meal, yet there is a basis for subsequent rebound [5]. 2.4 Live Pigs - The slaughter of the breeding end increases, and the spot pressure is continuously realized. The demand is slowly recovering, but whether it can smoothly absorb the supply is uncertain. The Ministry of Agriculture intends to strengthen production capacity regulation, the spot price lacks support, and the near - month contracts are in weak adjustment. Attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 and 3 - 7 reverse spread opportunities [6][7]. 2.5 Sugar - The supply pressure causes the raw sugar price to drop significantly. The import volume increases, the actual transaction price of processed sugar falls below 6,000, and the domestic sales data in August is poor. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will maintain a weak pattern [10]. 2.6 Cotton - In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range. In the long term, it will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [11]. 2.7 Eggs - Recently, the increase in demand may drive up the egg price, which is expected to reach the annual high. However, the high inventory and cold - storage egg release may suppress the increase. After the replenishment of traders next week, the demand may weaken, and the egg price in some areas may decline slightly [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - Soybean oil: On September 18, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,540 yuan/ton, down 1.73% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,284 yuan/ton, down 0.98%. The basis of Y2601 was 256 yuan/ton, down 20.99% [1]. - Palm oil: On September 18, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,270 yuan/ton, down 1.90%; the futures price of P2601 was 9,304 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The basis of P2601 was - 34 yuan/ton, down 230.77% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: On September 18, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,060 yuan/ton, down 0.49%; the futures price of Ol601 was 9,984 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The basis of Ol601 was 76 yuan/ton, down 31.53% [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: On September 18, the futures price of corn 2511 was 2,177 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; the basis was 103 yuan/ton, down 20.16% [2]. - Corn starch: On September 18, the futures price of corn starch 2511 was 2,471 yuan/ton, up 0.73%; the basis was 89 yuan/ton, down 16.82% [2]. 3.3 Meal - Soybean meal: On September 18, the spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 2,950 yuan/ton, down 1.01%; the futures price of M2601 was 2,993 yuan/ton, down 0.30%. The basis of M2601 was - 43 yuan/ton, down 95.45% [5]. - Rapeseed meal: On September 18, the spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2,570 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of RM2601 was 2,470 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The basis of RM2601 was 100 yuan/ton, down 9.09% [5]. 3.4 Live Pigs - On September 18, the futures price of live pigs 2511 was 12,830 yuan/ton, down 1.31%; the spot price in Henan was 12,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Sugar - On September 18, the futures price of sugar 2601 was 5,474 yuan/ton, down 0.99%; the spot price in Nanning was 5,840 yuan/ton, down 0.51% [10]. 3.6 Cotton - On September 18, the futures price of cotton 2605 was 13,725 yuan/ton, down 0.90%; the Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,249 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [11]. 3.7 Eggs - On September 18, the futures price of the egg 11 - contract was 3,132 yuan/500KG, up 0.51%; the egg - producing area price was 3.73 yuan/jin, down 0.91% [14].