大越期货甲醇早报-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand logic of methanol in China is different this week, showing a regional trend with the north stronger than the south. The price of methanol in production areas is likely to rise, while the rising range in sales areas is restricted. The port has a strong long - term expectation but is restricted by high inventory. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with the MA2601 contract oscillating between 2240 - 2380 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamental situation of methanol 2601 is neutral. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory has increased, which is bearish. The 20 - day line is downward and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. The main position is net long with an increase in long positions, which is bullish [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Bullish factors include some device shutdowns, reduced methanol production in Iran, new production of acetic acid devices, and external procurement of methanol by northwest CTO plants [6]. - Bearish factors include the resumption of previously shut - down devices, concentrated vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the traditional off - season of formaldehyde, a significant decline in MTBE operation, profit - driven active sales of coal - based methanol, and inventory accumulation in some production area factories [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2270 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis is - 76. The prices of methanol in various regions and the futures closing price have declined to varying degrees. The price of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether remains stable, while the price of acetic acid has increased by 4% [5][8][9][31]. - Inventory: As of September 18, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 132.98 million tons, a cumulative increase of 6.25 million tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 5.80 million tons to 94.95 million tons [5]. - Profit: The profits of coal - based and natural - gas - based methanol production processes have decreased, while the profit of the coke - oven gas - based process has increased. The production profits of formaldehyde and MTO are negative, while the production profits of dimethyl ether and acetic acid are positive [20][35][38][42][47]. - Load: The national weighted average methanol load is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The load of MTO devices has increased slightly [21][47]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic methanol plants: Many plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East, and Southwest are under maintenance, with varying maintenance start and end times and different production capacity losses [58]. - Foreign methanol plants: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have normal operations, and some plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States also have different operating conditions [59]. - Olefin plants: Some olefin plants in the Northwest, East, and other regions are under maintenance or have normal operations, and some have planned future maintenance or production expansion [60].