永安期货集运早报-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market has a risk of price - cutting, and the futures market is expected to continue its weak trend. The current valuation of the December contract is relatively neutral to high, and it may experience a deeper short - term decline. In the medium term, there are multiple upward drivers. In terms of valuation, the February contract has a higher cost - effectiveness for long positions compared to the December contract, while the April contract has a relatively high valuation and is more suitable for short positions in the off - season, but its low liquidity may make it vulnerable to disturbances [2][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - EC2510: Yesterday's closing price was 1105.9, down 0.34%, with a trading volume of 19585, an open interest of 47173, and a decrease of 2436 in open interest [2][17]. - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1645.3, down 1.60%, with a trading volume of 9304, an open interest of 20570, and an increase of 133 in open interest [2][17]. - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1566.1, down 0.80%, with a trading volume of 1549, an open interest of 7215, and an increase of 110 in open interest [2][17]. - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1255.2, down 2.32%, with a trading volume of 1289, an open interest of 8534, and an increase of 200 in open interest [2][17]. - FC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1453.5, down 1.03%, with a trading volume of 68, an open interest of 936, and an increase of 12 in open interest [2][17]. Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 539.4, with a daily increase of 22.9 and a weekly decrease of 86.8 [2][17]. - FC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 79.2, with a daily decrease of 14.0 and a weekly decrease of 30.2 [2][17]. Spot Market Indicators - SCHIS: On September 15, 2025, it was 0 points, down 100.00% from the previous period and down 11.68% from the period before the previous one [2][17]. - SCEI: On September 12, 2025, it was 1154 dollars/TEU, down 12.24% from the previous period and down 11.21% from the period before the previous one [2][17]. - CCFI: On September 12, 2025, it was 1537.28 points, down 6.19% from the previous period and down 2.79% from the period before the previous one [2][17]. - NCFI: On September 12, 2025, it was 729.42 points, down 14.78% from the previous period and down 7.92% from the period before the previous one [2][17]. Recent European Line Quotations - Week 39: The average quote was 1600 dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). MSK's quote was initially 1500 dollars and then rose to 1570 dollars, PA Alliance's quote was between 1550 - 1600 dollars, and OA Alliance's quote was between 1600 - 1720 dollars [2][17]. - Week 40: The average quote was 1525 dollars (equivalent to 1060 points on the futures market). MSK opened at 1400 dollars, OOCL reduced its price to between 1500 - 1550 dollars, and YML dropped to 1400 dollars [2][17]. - Week 41: MSK kept the price at 1400 dollars. On Thursday, YML reduced the freight rates for Week 39 - 41 to 1300 dollars, the lowest of the year, equivalent to about 900 points on the futures market. CMA reduced the price by 100 to 1600 dollars, and EMC's Week 40 price was 1500 dollars [2][17].