广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250919

Report 1: Glass and Soda Ash Futures and Spot Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soda Ash: The supply - demand pattern remains bearish. After the traditional summer maintenance season, supply is at a high level. Without actual capacity exit or load - reduction, inventory will face further pressure. It is advisable to short on rebounds [1]. - Glass: In the short - term, the spot market is driven by sentiment, and its sustainability needs to be tracked. In the medium - term, the actual demand during the peak season should be focused on. In the long - term, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Prices and Spreads: Glass prices in some regions increased slightly, while soda ash prices in some contracts decreased slightly. For example, the Huazhong glass quote increased by 0.88%, and the soda ash 2505 contract decreased by 0.14% [1]. - Supply: The soda ash开工率 decreased by 2.02%, and the weekly output decreased by 2.02%. The float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.47%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - Inventory: Glass inventory decreased by 1.10%, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33%, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 10.69% [1]. - Real Estate Data: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [1]. Report 2: Log Futures Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The current log price is temporarily stable supported by cost. With low arrival volume and low inventory, the price has strong bottom support. Although demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters, there is no obvious improvement trend. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Futures and Spot Prices: Log futures prices decreased, with the 2511 contract closing at 801.5 yuan per cubic meter, down 7.5 yuan per cubic meter. The spot prices of major standard delivery products remained unchanged [2]. - Supply: The number of pre - arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports this week decreased by 6, and the arrival volume decreased by 208,000 cubic meters [2]. - Inventory: As of September 12, the total inventory of national coniferous logs increased by 80,000 cubic meters to 3.02 million cubic meters [2]. - Demand: As of September 12, the average daily log delivery volume increased by 0.17 million cubic meters to 62,900 cubic meters [2]. Report 3: Rubber Industry Futures and Spot Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints In the short - term, rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile. The 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of 15,000 - 16,500 yuan per ton. The subsequent supply situation in the peak - production season of the main producing areas should be focused on [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Spot Prices and Basis: The prices of some rubber products decreased, such as the Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber decreased by 1.66%, and the Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.99% [3]. - Monthly Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 20.00%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 12.50% [3]. - Fundamentals: The production of some countries increased in July, such as Thailand's production increased by 1.61% and Indonesia's production increased by 12.09%. The domestic tire production in August increased by 9.10%, and the export volume decreased by 5.46% [3]. - Inventory Changes: The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.66%, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 1.30% [3]. Report 4: Futures and Spot Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The polysilicon market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. The rise in downstream prices, industry meetings, and low inventory of some enterprises support the price increase of polysilicon enterprises [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Spot Prices and Basis: The average price of N - type re - feedstock increased by 0.10%, and the N - type material basis increased by 35.64% [4]. - Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads: The main contract price decreased by 0.53%, and some monthly spreads increased, such as the 当月 - 连一 spread increased by 80.00% [4]. - Fundamentals (Weekly): The silicon wafer production increased by 0.29%, and the polysilicon production decreased by 100.00% [4]. - Fundamentals (Monthly): The polysilicon production increased by 23.31%, the import volume increased by 40.30%, and the net export volume decreased by 14.92% [4]. - Inventory Changes: The polysilicon inventory decreased by 100.00% [4]. Report 5: Industry Futures and Spot Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints From the cost side, the cost of industrial silicon is rising. From the supply - demand side, the supply - demand in August increased simultaneously, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacities are cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will decrease. It is recommended to go long on dips, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan per ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis: The price of some industrial silicon products remained unchanged, and the basis of some products increased, such as the basis of East China SI4210 industrial silicon increased by 36.36% [5]. - Monthly Spreads: Some monthly spreads changed, such as the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 25.00% [5]. - Fundamentals (Monthly): The national industrial silicon production increased by 14.01%, the national开工率 increased by 6.20%, and the organic silicon DMC production increased by 11.66% [5]. - Inventory Changes: The Xinjiang factory inventory decreased by 1.07%, the Yunnan factory inventory increased by 5.45%, and the social inventory increased by 0.74% [5].