贵金属期货周报-20250919

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metal Futures - September 19, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the context of the restart of the trade war, the economic recession restricts the consumption demand for gold and silver jewelry; the demand for precious metals lies in the choice of sovereign funds in the context of de - dollarization; when the US restarts interest rate cuts, the medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals; a relatively significant increase in domestic gold warehouse receipts has been tracked [2][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Overview - One - Week Policy and Fundamental Review - Trump will impose major sanctions on Russia when all NATO countries stop buying Russian oil; Poland allows NATO troops to be stationed; G7 finance ministers plan sanctions and tariffs on supporters of Russia in the Russia - Ukraine conflict; the UK and the US plan to sign a technology agreement, and US companies plan to invest over £1.25 billion in the UK's financial services sector; the US Energy Secretary says the EU may phase out Russian natural gas in 6 - 12 months; Fitch downgrades France's sovereign credit rating; OpenAI may reduce its revenue - sharing ratio with Microsoft to 8% and get an additional $50 billion in revenue; NVIDIA reduces its focus on its cloud - computing business; Tesla's German factory increases production; the US plans to expand its strategic uranium reserve; the US August retail sales monthly rate is 0.6%, higher than the forecast of 0.2%; the US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and the dot - plot implies three rate cuts this year; the EU sanctions Israel, and Saudi Arabia and Pakistan sign a common defense agreement; Brazil keeps its benchmark interest rate unchanged, and Canada cuts its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points; Trump opposes the UK's recognition of Palestine; the UK and Japan increase their holdings of US Treasury bonds in July while China reduces its holdings; the Bank of England keeps its interest rate unchanged and slows down quantitative tightening [8] Gold Market Tracking - COMEX gold: The latest long - position is 122,450 contracts, short - position is 35,978 contracts; SPDR gold ETF holdings are 862 tons, iShares gold ETF holdings are 402 tons; the latest futures position is 407,927 hands; the Shanghai gold warehouse receipt is 3 tons, and the overseas inventory is 617 ounces. In terms of changes, the 5 - day change shows a - 4% decrease in long - position ratio, - 1% in short - position ratio, etc. [9] Silver Market Tracking - COMEX silver: The latest long - position is 44,277 contracts, short - position is 27,801 contracts; SLV silver ETF holdings are 13,802 tons; the latest futures position is 971,795 hands; the Shanghai silver warehouse receipt is 1,075 tons, and the overseas inventory is 8,398 tons. The 5 - day change shows a 57 - contract increase in long - position, 58 - ton increase in SLV holdings, etc. [15] Gold and Silver Import Profit Tracking - The import gold hedging profit rate and import silver hedging profit rate data from July 15, 2024, to September 8, 2025, are presented in the form of a chart [22] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Trends Dollar Index Futures Position Tracking - ICE dollar index non - commercial net long - position and total position data from February 11, 2025, to September 9, 2025, are presented in the form of a chart [24] US Treasury Bond Futures Position Tracking - CBOT 10 - year, 5 - year, 2 - year US Treasury bond futures and options non - commercial net long - position, total position, and non - commercial net long - position data from different time periods are presented in the form of a chart [27][28][29] US Inflation Expectation - The US inflation expectation data from July 22, 2025, to September 18, 2025, are presented in the form of a chart, including 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year break - even inflation rates [31] US Real Interest Rate - The US Treasury real yield curve data for 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year from October 2005 to April 2025 are presented in the form of a chart [33] US Interest Rate Term Structure - The US Treasury interest rate, inflation expectation, and real interest rate data for different terms (1M - 30Y) are presented in the form of a chart [35] US and Major Non - US Countries' 2 - Year Treasury Bond Yield Spread - The yield spreads between the US 2 - year Treasury bond and those of the UK, Japan, China, and Germany from July 22, 2025, to September 18, 2025, are presented in the form of a chart [39]