Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700 in the short term [7] - The domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber has recovered, with sufficient overall supply. The downstream continues to purchase at low prices, putting pressure on the negotiation focus of the spot market. Some industry players expect a reduction in the mainstream supply price. Before the National Day holiday, downstream demand for stockpiling is expected to drive up buying and reduce inventory levels [8] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates slightly. The semi - steel tire domestic snow tire orders are in the concentrated production period, which supports the overall operation, while the demand in the all - steel tire replacement market has not improved significantly, and some enterprises face export pressure. The overall shipment is less than expected, and some enterprises may control production flexibly, with a possible slight decline in short - term capacity utilization [8] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700 in the short term [7] - Market review: The price of the cis - butadiene rubber market in Shandong, China, fluctuated weakly this week, with the spot price ranging from 11,400 to 11,800 yuan/ton. The prices of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina's main sales companies were reduced by 200 yuan/ton in total. As of September 18, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China was 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, increasing domestic production. The overall supply of cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient. Affected by downstream low - price purchases, the negotiation focus of the spot market is under pressure. Some industry players expect a price cut. The inventories of enterprises and sample trading enterprises have decreased slightly. Before the National Day holiday, downstream stockpiling demand is expected to drive up buying and reduce inventory levels. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates slightly. The semi - steel tire domestic snow tire orders are in the concentrated production period, which supports the overall operation, while the demand in the all - steel tire replacement market has not improved significantly, and some enterprises face export pressure. The overall shipment is less than expected, and some enterprises may control production flexibly, with a possible slight decline in short - term capacity utilization [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fell by 1.08% this week [12] - As of September 19, the spread between the 10 - 11 contracts of butadiene rubber was 70 [18] - As of September 19, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,610 tons, a decrease of 360 tons from last week [21] - Spot Market - As of September 18, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week [25] - As of September 18, the basis of butadiene rubber was 135 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [25] 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream - As of September 18, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 599.38 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.56 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 850 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton from last week [28] - As of September 19, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 66.78%, a decrease of 1.55% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 23,100 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons from last week [31] - Production and Profit of Cis - Butadiene Rubber - In August 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 135,700 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from the previous month [34] - As of September 18, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 69.72%, a decrease of 3.56% from last week [34] - As of September 18, the production profit of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was - 658 yuan/ton, a decrease of 151 yuan/ton from last week [37] - Inventory - As of September 19, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,720 tons, a decrease of 790 tons from last week [41] - As of September 19, the domestic manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 25,900 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 7,820 tons, a decrease of 390 tons from last week [41] - Downstream - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly this week. Most tire enterprises maintained last week's production level, and some enterprises still faced shortages. The semi - steel tire domestic snow tire orders were in the concentrated production period, which supported the overall operation [44] - In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, China's cumulative tire export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 325,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.78% and a year - on - year increase of 7.20%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 1.9403 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.51%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 454,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.99%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 2.7891 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.52% [47]
合成橡胶市场周报-20250919
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-19 09:58