瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20250919

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Market Weekly Report - Report Date: September 19, 2025 - Researcher: Lin Jingyi 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea market fluctuated at a low level this week, with prices first rising and then falling. The average price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,610 - 1,640 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [6]. - In the short term, domestic urea production is expected to increase as some idle plants resume operation. Agricultural demand is scattered, and industrial demand improvement is below expectations. Although there is concentrated export shipping, overall demand is less than supply, and enterprise inventories may continue to accumulate [6]. - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,650 - 1,690 yuan in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The domestic urea market fluctuated at a low level this week, with prices first rising and then falling. The average price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,610 - 1,640 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [6]. - Market Outlook: Domestic urea daily production is expected to increase. Agricultural demand is scattered, and industrial demand improvement is below expectations. Although there is concentrated export shipping, overall demand is less than supply, and enterprise inventories may continue to accumulate [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,650 - 1,690 yuan in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: The main contract price of Zhengzhou urea futures oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.12% [9]. - Inter - period Spread: As of September 19, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 61 [12]. - Open Interest Analysis: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - Warehouse Receipts: As of September 19, there were 7,810 urea warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou, a decrease of 1,081 from last week [20]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Spot Price: As of September 18, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [25]. - Foreign Spot Price: As of September 18, the FOB price of urea in China was 423.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8.5 US dollars/ton from last week [28]. - Basis: As of September 18, the urea basis was - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton from last week [33]. 3.4 Upstream Market - Coal Price: As of September 17, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 675 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [36]. - Natural Gas Price: As of September 18, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.94 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.02 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [36]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Capacity Utilization and Output: As of September 18, China's urea production was 1.33 million tons, an increase of 30,700 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 2.36%; the capacity utilization rate was 81.22%, an increase of 1.88% from the previous period [39]. - Enterprise and Port Inventories: As of September 18, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 516,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,400 tons, a decrease of 6.08%; as of September 17, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1653 million tons, an increase of 32,600 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 2.88% [42]. - Export Situation: In July 2025, China's urea export volume was 567,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 756.80% and a year - on - year increase of 614.36% [45]. 3.6 Downstream Market - Compound Fertilizer and Melamine Capacity Utilization: As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 38.63%, a week - on - week increase of 0.81 percentage points; the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 56.78%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from last week [50].