Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market saw a decline in prices due to weakened raw material and macro - driving forces. Imported rubber prices dropped, and the spot market for domestic natural rubber also adjusted downward with cautious trading [9]. - Global natural rubber production areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's production is gradually normalizing, while Hainan's production has recovered despite potential typhoon impacts. Qingdao port inventories continue to decline, with the bonded warehouse decline exceeding expectations and a slight increase in general trade inventory. Demand from downstream tire enterprises shows mixed performance, with semi - steel tire production having some support and full - steel tire demand lacking improvement [9]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15300 - 15750, and the nr2511 contract between 12150 - 12600 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: Raw material and macro - driving forces weakened, causing rubber prices to fall. Imported rubber prices dropped, and the domestic spot market adjusted downward with limited real - order follow - up [9]. - Market Outlook: Production areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's production is normalizing, and Hainan's production has recovered. Qingdao port inventories are declining, with the bonded warehouse decline exceeding expectations. Downstream tire enterprises' capacity utilization may slightly decrease [9]. - Strategy Recommendations: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15300 - 15750, and the nr2511 contract between 12150 - 12600 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - Price Movement: The main contract of Shanghai rubber futures fell 1.8% week - on - week, and the 20 - rubber main contract fell 2.03% week - on - week [14]. - Position Analysis: Not detailed in summary, only mentioned the top 20 position changes of Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber [15][17]. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of September 19, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was 5, and the spread between 20 - rubber 10 - 11 was 0 [22]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of September 19, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 154,920 tons, an increase of 1,980 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 44,553 tons, a decrease of 2,023 tons from last week [28]. - Spot Market - Domestic Natural Rubber Price: As of September 18, the state - owned whole latex was reported at 14,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week [30]. - 20 - Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis: As of September 18, the 20 - rubber basis was 706 yuan/ton, an increase of 82 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 820 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream - Thailand Raw Material Price: As of September 18, the field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 56.3 (+0.1) Thai baht/kg, and cup lump was 51.05 (-0.5) Thai baht/kg. As of September 19, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12 US dollars/ton from last week [40]. - Domestic Production Area Raw Material Price: As of September 18, the Yunnan latex price was 14,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the Hainan fresh latex price was 14,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week [43]. - Import Quantity: In July 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [46]. - Inventory in Qingdao: As of September 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 586,600 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.95%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 8.32% to 66,200 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.07% to 520,400 tons [50]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No content related to option market analysis was provided in the report. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Tire Production Capacity Utilization: As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points [53]. - Tire Export: In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [57]. - Domestic Demand: In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sales volume was close to 710,000 vehicles [60].
瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20250919
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-19 09:58