棉花（纱）市场周报-20250919

Group 1: Report Summary - The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.01%. The price of the US cotton December contract increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.09%. The price of the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract decreased, with a decline of about 0.55% [5][11][22] - The US 2025/26 annual upland cotton net export signing volume increased, while the shipment volume decreased. The estimated total cotton output in China in 2025 is 721.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, hitting a new high since 2013. With new cotton being sparsely available and the downstream peak season not evident, the short-term support for cotton prices has weakened [5] - Operationally, the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract should be treated with a short-term bearish mindset. Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory levels [6][7] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market US Cotton Market - As of September 9, 2025, the non-commercial long positions in US cotton futures were 70,171 lots, a decrease of 301 lots from the previous week; the non-commercial short positions were 121,505 lots, an increase of 2,821 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 51,334 lots, an increase of 3,122 lots from the previous week [11] US Cotton Export and Spot Price - As of the week ending September 4, the net increase in US cotton export sales for the current year was 129,600 bales, a 47% decrease from the previous week and a 33% decrease from the average level of the previous four weeks. The current international cotton spot price is 79.1 cents per pound, an increase of 1.25 cents per pound from the previous week [16] Futures Market - The net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were -19,591 lots, and the net positions of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures were -477 lots. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 4,232, and the number of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 0 [28][34] Spot Market - As of September 19, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,283 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,765 yuan per ton [42][53] Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost and Profit - As of September 18, the import cotton sliding duty price was 14,305 yuan per ton, an increase of 129 yuan per ton from the previous week; the import cotton quota price was 13,527 yuan per ton, an increase of 208 yuan per ton from the previous week. The estimated profit of imported cotton sliding duty was 1,005 yuan per ton, a decrease of 105 yuan per ton from the previous week; the estimated profit of imported cotton quota was 1,783 yuan per ton, a decrease of 184 yuan per ton from the previous week [57][60] Group 3: Industrial Chain Supply Side - As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the previous month, a decline of 32.34%. As of July 31, the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.85% [63] - In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 66.67%. As of July, the import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, with no month-on-month change [70] Middle - End Industry - In July, the yarn inventory days of textile enterprises were 27.67 days, a month-on-month decrease of 2.43%. The grey fabric inventory days were 36.14 days, a month-on-month decrease of 2.95% [73] Terminal Consumption - In July 2025, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1160.4009 million US dollars, a month-on-month decrease of 3.69%. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1516.1759 million US dollars, a month-on-month decrease of 0.69% [79] - As of July 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles were 837.1 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 12.73%; the cumulative year-on-year increase was 2.9%, a month-on-month decrease of 6.45% [83] Group 4: Options and Stock Market Options Market - The report mentions the implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week, but specific data is not provided [84] Stock Market - The report shows the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Tunhe Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. (600359), but specific data is not provided [87]