油料周报-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The September USDA report had a neutral - weak impact on soybeans, with an increase in US soybean production and inventory, and a decrease in global production. Attention should be paid to the US soybean harvest progress [2]. - Uncertainty in Sino - US tariffs affects domestic soybean procurement in November, and future import changes need to be monitored. The market has been volatile due to Sino - US uncertainties [6]. - The domestic supply - demand situation for beans and rapeseed has shown little change. The anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decline in imports, but the situation remains uncertain. Low domestic rapeseed inventory may slow down rapeseed crushing and affect the supply of rapeseed meal and oil [6]. - Soybean crushing remains at a high level, and soybean oil is in a continuous inventory accumulation phase. The demand is in the off - season, but the National Day peak season may boost demand. There is an overall slightly surplus situation with high inventory pressure and some support from peak - season demand [37]. - The MPOB report on palm oil showed that inventory accumulation was less than expected, and the September report was moderately positive. Attention should be paid to the impact of the crude oil market and biodiesel. Domestic palm oil inventory accumulation has slowed, reducing supply - demand pressure [38]. - The domestic rapeseed oil market lacks new themes and is in a continuous inventory reduction cycle. Anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may reduce supply, and changes in imports from Russia should be monitored. Terminal purchasing willingness is low, and the market is highly volatile at high levels [38]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal - The September USDA report was neutral - weak, with an increase in US soybean production and inventory and a decrease in global production. Monitor the US soybean harvest progress [2]. - Uncertain Sino - US tariffs have led to inactive domestic soybean procurement in November. Pay attention to import changes and the progress of Sino - US tariffs [6]. - Both the spot and futures markets have been oscillating recently [6]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - The domestic supply - demand situation has changed little. Anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decline in imports, but the outcome is uncertain. Monitor domestic rapeseed import progress [6]. - Low domestic rapeseed inventory may slow down rapeseed crushing, affecting the supply of rapeseed meal and oil. The spot market has remained stable, and the domestic market has shown a slightly stronger oscillating trend recently [6]. 3.3 Soybean Oil - Soybean crushing remains at a high level, and soybean oil is in the inventory accumulation phase [37]. - Demand is in the off - season, but the National Day peak season may boost demand. There is an overall slightly surplus situation with high inventory pressure and some support from peak - season demand [37]. 3.4 Palm Oil - The MPOB report showed that inventory accumulation was less than expected, and the September report was moderately positive [38]. - Pay attention to the impact of the crude oil market and biodiesel. Domestic palm oil inventory accumulation has slowed, reducing supply - demand pressure. Import costs have risen, but the domestic basis is weak [38]. 3.5 Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed oil market lacks new themes and is in a continuous inventory reduction cycle [38]. - Anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may reduce supply, and changes in imports from Russia should be monitored. Terminal purchasing willingness is low, and the market is highly volatile at high levels [38].