碳酸锂市场周报：库存稳降预期向好，锂价或将有所支撑-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price rebounded with a weekly increase of 3.93% and an amplitude of 5.99%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 73,960 yuan/ton [5]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage of stable supply and improving demand. The overall industrial inventory is continuously decreasing, and consumption expectations are positive [5]. - It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - Market Review: The main contract of lithium carbonate rebounded in the weekly line, with a price increase of 3.93% and an amplitude of 5.99%. The closing price of the main contract was 73,960 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 200 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 20 yuan/ton [5][6]. - Market Outlook: Macroeconomically, relevant policies were introduced to expand service consumption. In terms of fundamentals, overseas mines and traders were reluctant to sell at low prices, and domestic producers' purchasing sentiment recovered. The inventory of lithium salt factories and traders continued to decline, and the production willingness of smelters remained positive. Downstream enterprises mostly adopted the strategy of buying on dips, and pre - holiday stocking before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day made the spot market transactions relatively active [5]. - Strategy Suggestion: Conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and control risks in trading rhythm [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: The futures price fluctuated strongly. As of September 19, 2025, the closing price of the main contract was 73,960 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2,800 yuan/ton [6]. - Spot Price: The spot price rose. As of September 19, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1,050 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 460 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,750 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Upstream Market - Lithium Spodumene: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 876 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 10 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1125, a weekly decrease of 0.14% [19]. - Lithium Mica: The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 7,215 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 370 yuan/ton [25]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply Side: In July 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 21.77% month - on - month and 42.67% year - on - year. The export volume was 366.347 tons, a decrease of 14.74% month - on - month and an increase of 37.2% year - on - year. In August 2025, the output was 45,880 tons, an increase of 2.87% month - on - month and 31.09% year - on - year. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a decrease of 5% month - on - month and 32% year - on - year [31]. - Demand Side - Hexafluorophosphate Lithium: The average price was 57,500 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 10,000 yuan/ton. In August 2025, the output of electrolyte was 192,100 tons, an increase of 5.58% month - on - month and 43.84% year - on - year [34]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) remained flat week - on - week. In August 2025, the output of cathode materials was 240,000 tons, an increase of 12.17% month - on - month and 32.6% year - on - year. The monthly operating rate was 57%, a change of 6% month - on - month and - 3% year - on - year [37]. - Ternary Materials: The prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 types remained stable. In August 2025, the output was 65,860 tons, an increase of 6.36% month - on - month and 17.61% year - on - year. The monthly operating rate was 55%, a change of 3% month - on - month and - 4% year - on - year [42]. - Lithium Manganate: The average price of lithium manganate remained flat week - on - week. In August 2025, the output was 10,330 tons, an increase of 2.08% month - on - month and a decrease of 6.09% year - on - year [47]. - Lithium Cobaltate: The average price of lithium cobaltate remained flat week - on - week. In August 2025, the output was 14,980 tons, an increase of 16.39% month - on - month and 92.05% year - on - year [50]. - Application Side - New Energy Vehicles: In August 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 45.53%, a change of 0.54% month - on - month and 8.03% year - on - year. The monthly output was 1,391,000 vehicles, a change of 11.91% month - on - month, and the sales volume was 1,395,000 vehicles, a change of 10.54% month - on - month [52]. - New Energy Vehicle Exports: As of August 2025, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.532 million, a year - on - year increase of 87.29% [57]. 3.5 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset was 0.06, indicating a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to build a long straddle option to bet on increasing volatility [60].