鸡蛋市场周报：现货季节性回升，期货受制于高产能-20250919

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the pressure of newly - opened laying hens from previous replenishments is large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The decrease in temperature has increased the laying rate of hens, further exacerbating the supply pressure. However, due to pre - Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking, the recent purchase volume of traders has increased, and the market demand has shown signs of recovery, which has supported the egg price and the futures price. But the high - capacity pressure still exists and restricts the futures price. It is recommended to conduct short - term, fast - in - and - fast - out trading and pay attention to the culling volume of old hens [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, the egg futures fluctuated and closed higher. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 3112 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 72 yuan/500 kilograms compared with the previous week [6]. - Market Outlook: High egg supply due to high inventory and increased laying rate; demand recovery due to festival stocking; futures price supported by spot price but restricted by high - capacity pressure [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term fast - in - and - fast - out trading, and pay attention to the culling volume of old hens [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position: The egg futures 11 contract fluctuated and closed higher, with a position of 398,055 lots, a decrease of 11,258 lots compared with the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 18,354, and the net short position decreased slightly compared with last week [13]. - Futures Warehouse Receipt: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [17]. - Spot Price and Basis: The egg spot price was 3746 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 153 yuan/500 kilograms compared with the previous week. The basis between the active 11 - contract futures price and the spot average price was 634 yuan/ton [23]. - Futures Inter - month Spread: The 11 - 1 spread of eggs was - 306 yuan/500 kilograms, which was at a relatively low level in the same period [27]. - Related Spot Prices: As of September 18, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.55 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of monitored vegetables was 4.98 yuan/kg [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain - Supply Side - Inventory and Replenishment: As of July 31, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was 113.18, a month - on - month increase of 1.13%; the national new - chick index was 78.4, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% [39]. - Supply Side - Culling Index and Age: As of July 31, 2025, the national culled laying hen index was 99.2, a month - on - month decrease of 4.70%; the national culling age was 512 days [44]. - Feed Raw Material Prices: As of September 18, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2360.59 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2950 yuan/ton [48]. - Feed Price and Breeding Profit: As of September 12, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.02 yuan/hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan/kg [55]. - Prices of Laying Hen Chicks and Culled Hens: As of September 12, 2025, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas was 2.6 yuan/chick, and the average price of culled hens was 9.22 yuan/kg [59]. - Egg Exports: In May 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons compared with the same period last year (an increase of 7.87%), and a decrease of 81.14 tons compared with the previous month [64]. 3.4 Representative Company - Xiaoming Co., Ltd.: There is a chart of its price - to - earnings ratio change, but no specific analysis content is provided [66].