瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20250919

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2380 in the short - term [7]. - Recently, the output of resumed methanol production capacity in China is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, with a slight increase in overall output. The inventory of inland enterprises decreased this week, but the overall inventory is still at a relatively low level. Port inventory increased slightly this week, and it is expected to continue to accumulate next week, subject to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货 volume [8]. - The olefin operating rate increased this week after hedging, and is expected to continue to rise next week with the restart of some devices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The domestic port methanol market was strong this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2260 - 2320 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2260 - 2300 yuan/ton. The inland market continued to rise. Due to factors such as pre - holiday replenishment by downstream and stable olefin demand, the marketable volume of goods in the production area was tight, and the receiving price in northern Shandong increased steadily [8]. - Market Outlook: Domestic methanol production increased slightly. Inland enterprise inventory decreased, and the overall inventory level remained low. Port inventory increased slightly, and it is expected to continue to accumulate next week. The olefin operating rate increased this week and is expected to rise further next week [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: The price of the main methanol futures contract in Zhengzhou fluctuated and closed down this week, with a decline of 0.76% [11]. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of September 19, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 20 [14]. - Position Analysis: No specific analysis results provided in the text. - Warehouse Receipts: As of September 18, there were 10,270 methanol warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou, a decrease of 4,780 from last week [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Spot Price: As of September 19, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 2085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 175.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.5 yuan/ton from last week [26]. - Foreign Spot Price: As of September 18, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 261 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 65 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from last week [33]. - Basis: As of September 19, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.4 Industry Chain Analysis - Upstream: As of September 17, the market price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal in Qinhuangdao was 675 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of September 18, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.94 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.02 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41]. - Industry: As of September 18, China's methanol production was 1,813,165 tons, a decrease of 106,100 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 79.91%, a decrease of 5.52% month - on - month. As of September 17, the total port inventory was 1.5578 million tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 340,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from the previous period. In July 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.1027 million tons, a decrease of 9.63% month - on - month; from January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 6.48 million tons, a decrease of 14.66% year - on - year. As of September 18, the methanol import profit was 5.68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.55 yuan/ton from last week [44][48][51]. - Downstream: As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 84.89%, an increase of 2.23% month - on - month. As of September 19, the domestic methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 969 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77 yuan/ton from last week [54][57].