黑色产业链日报-20250919

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market was previously driven by macro factors, but currently, the macro - driving force has weakened in the short term, and the fundamentals have not formed an upward drive. After digesting the short - term impact of the Fed's less - than - expected interest rate cut, the steel futures market may turn to a volatile consolidation. The iron ore market has limited price fluctuations, and the price is expected to move in a range. The coal - coke market may see an improvement in the supply - demand structure before the National Day, but the high supply of steel will suppress the rebound height of coal - coke prices. The ferroalloy market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and the supply - demand pressure may weaken. The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the high inventory of the upper - middle reaches restricts the price. The glass market lacks a clear trend and trading logic due to high inventory and weak demand, and the supply - demand pattern of near - term supply exceeding demand remains unchanged [3][20][33][51][62][88]. Summary by Directory Steel - Macro and Fundamental Analysis: The Fed's interest rate cut was less than expected, and the market risk preference may be adjusted in the short term. Among the five major steel products, only rebar showed a situation of reduced supply, increased demand, and inventory turning from increase to decrease. The overall steel market is still in the inventory accumulation channel, but the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down, and there is a replenishment expectation before the National Day [3]. - Price and Spread Data: Provided the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts on September 19 and 18, 2025, as well as the corresponding month - spreads, basis, and spot prices [4][7][10]. Iron Ore - Market Situation: The contradiction in the iron ore market is not significant, and the price fluctuation has narrowed. The supply has recovered to a medium - high level, and the overall demand is in a tight balance due to pre - holiday replenishment by steel mills. The profit of steel mills has declined marginally, and the downstream steel demand is average, with inventory accumulation but a slowdown in the inventory accumulation slope [20]. - Price and Fundamental Data: Presented the price data of iron ore futures contracts, basis, and spot prices, as well as fundamental data such as daily average hot - metal output, port desilting volume, and global shipping volume [21][27]. Coal - Coke - Market Outlook: "Anti - involution" remains the focus of the market in the second half of the year. The market participants' expectations for the future are gradually improving, and there is a possibility of inventory transfer before the National Day to improve the supply - demand structure. However, the high supply of steel will suppress the rebound height of coal - coke prices [33]. - Price and Spread Data: Included the cost of coal - coke warehouse receipts, basis, month - spreads, and various profit ratios [38]. - Spot Price Data: Provided the spot prices of coking coal and coke, as well as import and export profits [39]. Ferroalloy - Market Logic: The trading logic of ferroalloys lies in the expectation of supply - side contraction. The production profit of ferroalloys is declining, and the supply - demand pressure may weaken [51]. - Data: Presented the daily data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, including basis, month - spreads, and spot prices [52][54]. Soda Ash - Market Situation: The market sentiment and focus are volatile. The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the long - term, and the demand is stable. The inventory of the upper - middle reaches is high, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [62]. - Price and Spread Data: Provided the closing prices of soda ash futures contracts, month - spreads, and basis [63]. - Spot Price Data: Showed the spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions and their spreads [67]. Glass - Market Analysis: The high inventory of the upper - middle reaches and weak demand limit the price of glass. The supply - demand pattern of near - term supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, and the price lacks a clear trend and trading logic [88]. - Price and Spread Data: Presented the closing prices of glass futures contracts, month - spreads, and basis [89]. - Sales Data: Provided the daily sales data of glass in different regions [90].