油脂油料产业日报-20250919

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Palm Oil - International Market: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures market maintains a narrow - range oscillatory consolidation trend. Affected by the decline of US soybean oil futures, the Malaysian palm oil hovers around 4,400 ringgit. After a short - term consolidation and stabilization, with potential bullish factors such as slower production growth and increasing exports, the crude palm oil futures may strengthen. If it effectively stands above 4,500 ringgit, an upward oscillatory rally may occur. It's advisable to closely monitor whether it can stand above 4,400 ringgit [3]. - Domestic Market: The Dalian palm oil futures market also shows an oscillatory consolidation trend. In the short - term, it will repeatedly test the support of the 60 - day moving average. If the Malaysian palm oil strengthens, the Dalian palm oil futures may follow. After breaking through 9,500 yuan, it may open up new upside space. The overall view is that the near - term contracts are weaker than the far - term ones. It's necessary to closely watch whether it can stand above the 60 - day moving average [3]. 2.2 Soybean Oil Today, the soybean oil futures rebounded due to the rise of rapeseed oil (anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed) and good consumption during the last stage of Mid - Autumn Festival stockpiling. The news of soybean oil exports also provided support. However, the supply is sufficient, and with the upcoming China - US leaders' call, the market is waiting to see if it involves agricultural product purchases, resulting in limited price fluctuations. The January contract is oscillating above 8,300 yuan. If the call reveals China's purchase of US soybeans, the increase in soybean supply in the fourth quarter may drag down the far - term contracts, while the rise of CBOT soybeans may boost the near - term contracts. Otherwise, the January contract will maintain the current narrow - range oscillation [4]. 2.3 Oilseeds (Bean Meal) The bean meal futures once broke through the support level due to the increasing expectation of a China - US trade tariff agreement and weak market reality. But it rebounded slightly during the day under the influence of the sharp rise of rapeseed meal and profit - taking by some institutions. The short - term market is waiting for the guidance of trade negotiations, and the futures price continues to fluctuate around 3,000 yuan. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the near - term basis remained stable. With high inventory pressure, oil mills are urging customers to pick up goods and even repurchase some contracts. However, due to the weak peak - season consumption and the decline in pig存栏, feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. The spot price of bean meal has limited upward momentum and will fluctuate in the range of 2,900 - 3,150 yuan/ton in the short - term [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price and Spread - Palm Oil Price and Spread: Palm oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 9,316 yuan/ton, 9,114 yuan/ton, and 8,792 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.13%, 0.07%, and 0.09%. The BMD palm oil main contract is at 4,447 ringgit/ton, up 0.27%. There are also data on price spreads such as P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, etc. [5][8] - Soybean Oil Price and Spread: Soybean oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 8,328 yuan/ton, 8,052 yuan/ton, and 7,990 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.7%, 0.76%, and 0.59%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 51.17 cents/pound, down 1.25%. There are also data on price spreads such as Y 1 - 5, Y 5 - 9, etc. [5][13] 3.2 Oilseed Futures Price and Spread - Futures Price: Bean meal futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 3,014, 2,786, and 2,899 respectively, with daily increases of 0.7%, 0.76%, and 0.59%. Rapeseed meal futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 2,522, 2,387, and 2,454 respectively, with daily increases of 2.11%, 1.27%, and 0.78%. The CBOT yellow soybean is at 1,038.75, with no change [18]. - Spread: There are data on spreads such as M01 - 05, M05 - 09, RM01 - 05, etc. For example, M01 - 05 is 228, up 7; RM01 - 05 is 113, up 14 [19][21]