Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold price is affected by the Fed's interest rate cut and Powell's hint of a slowdown in future interest rate cuts, leading to market divergence and profit - taking. However, there are still medium - to long - term supporting factors such as continuous central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the de - dollarization trend, so the bottom support of the gold price is stable after the correction [3]. - The Fed's interest rate cut is in line with market expectations, but it will not enter a continuous interest rate cut cycle, which cools down the market sentiment. The short - term supply - tight pattern of tin in September is difficult to change, and the weak demand has little impact on the price for the time being [18][97]. - The price of aluminum reached a new high this year, but the downstream receiving sentiment is poor, and the future inventory is an important factor determining the price trend. The alumina market is in a state of supply surplus, and the price may be weak in the short term. The price of cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate strongly [36][37][38]. - The supply of zinc is in an over - supply state, the market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average, and the LME inventory continues to decline. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate [66]. - For the nickel industry chain, there are concerns about the supply of nickel ore, the new energy sector provides support, the stainless steel market is weak, and the overall market is weak due to the Fed's interest rate cut not exceeding expectations [82]. - For lithium carbonate, the "Golden September and Silver October" downstream peak - season demand supports the price, and the short - term supply - side disturbance does not change the support logic [108]. - For the silicon industry chain, the short - term sentiment is positively supported, but the industry is under long - term structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by news and policy expectations, and the trend is uncertain [117]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Price and Market Analysis: The gold price is affected by the Fed's interest rate cut and the rebound of the US dollar index, but the bottom support is stable due to factors such as central bank gold purchases. The trading data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures are presented in multiple charts [3]. - Long - term Factors: Global central bank gold purchases continue, for example, China has increased its gold holdings for 10 consecutive months, and Switzerland's gold exports to China have soared by 254%. Geopolitical risks and the de - dollarization trend remain unchanged [3]. Copper - Market Sentiment: The Fed's interest rate cut is in line with expectations, but it will not enter a continuous interest rate cut cycle, which cools down the market sentiment [18]. - Trading Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of copper futures and spot are provided, including domestic and foreign markets. The import profit and loss, processing fees, and inventory data are also presented [19][22][28][34]. Aluminum - Aluminum Price: The price of aluminum reached a new high this year, but the downstream receiving sentiment is poor, and the future inventory is an important factor determining the price trend [36]. - Alumina Market: The alumina market is in a state of supply surplus, and the price may be weak in the short term. The core contradiction of bauxite lies in the tight domestic ore, low Guinea bauxite shipments, and high inventory [37]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The price of cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate strongly due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum [38]. - Trading Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot are provided, as well as relevant spread and inventory data [39][45][53][62]. Zinc - Supply and Demand: The supply of zinc is in an over - supply state, the market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average, and the LME inventory continues to decline [66]. - Trading Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc futures and spot are provided, as well as relevant spread and inventory data [67][73][78]. Nickel Industry Chain - Industry Situation: There are concerns about the supply of nickel ore, the new energy sector provides support, the stainless steel market is weak, and the overall market is weak due to the Fed's interest rate cut not exceeding expectations [82]. - Trading Data: The latest prices, trading volumes, positions, and inventory data of nickel and stainless steel futures are provided [83]. Tin - Market Situation: The Fed's interest rate cut cools down the market sentiment. The short - term supply - tight pattern in September is difficult to change, and the weak demand has little impact on the price for the time being [97]. - Trading Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of tin futures and spot are provided, as well as inventory data [98][102][104]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Support: The "Golden September and Silver October" downstream peak - season demand supports the price, and the short - term supply - side disturbance does not change the support logic [108]. - Trading Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures and spot are provided, as well as inventory data [109][111][115]. Silicon Industry Chain - Industry Outlook: The short - term sentiment is positively supported, but the industry is under long - term structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by news and policy expectations, and the trend is uncertain [117]. - Trading Data: The latest prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided, as well as production, inventory, and cost data [118][125][133][142].
贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250919
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-09-19 10:34