Core View - The Fed cut interest rates in September, and the expectation of further rate cuts within the year has increased (83% probability in October), which improves liquidity and boosts the financial attributes of copper [4]. - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has been shut down due to an accident, and domestic smelters are undergoing intensive maintenance, exacerbating the tight spot market [4]. - After the copper price exceeded 80,000 yuan, the downstream replenishment willingness was weak. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production was only 67.63%, and traditional sectors such as real estate and home appliances had low acceptance of high prices [4]. - COMEX copper inventories increased by 4.5% week - on - week to 309,200 tons, and domestic visible inventories also increased, reflecting pressure on terminal consumption [4]. - After the Fed's rate cut, there is a lack of new drivers. The fundamental situation is a combination of "weak reality" and "strong expectation", and copper prices may fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]. Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Main Contract is 79,910 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.42%, a position of 116,552 lots, a weekly decrease of 70,324 lots, and a trading volume of 48,845 lots [6]. - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Index Weighted is 79,871 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.47%, a position of 487,984 lots, a weekly decrease of 6,933 lots, and a trading volume of 229,825 lots [6]. - The latest price of International Copper is 70,810 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.69%, a position of 4,498 lots, a weekly decrease of 349 lots, and a trading volume of 3,266 lots [6]. - The latest price of LME Copper 3 - month is 9,946 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.1%, a position of 239,014 lots, a weekly decrease of 38,282 lots, and a trading volume of 14,733 lots [6]. - The latest price of COMEX Copper is 460 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.52%, a position of 123,532 lots, a weekly increase of 8,063 lots, and a trading volume of 22,972 lots [6]. Copper Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper is 79,990 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 765 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 0.95% [10]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 79,970 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,020 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.26% [10]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 80,030 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 900 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.11% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 80,110 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 970 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.2% [11]. - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous premium/discount is 70 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 15 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 17.65% [11]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao premium/discount is 50 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 10 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 25% [11]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve premium/discount is 40 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 30 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 42.86% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous premium/discount is 125 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 35 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 38.89% [11]. - The latest price of LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium/discount is - 71.09 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 9.55 US dollars and a weekly decline rate of 15.52% [11]. - The latest price of LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium/discount is - 160.28 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 11.04 US dollars and a weekly decline rate of 6.44% [11]. Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The latest copper import profit and loss is - 21.58 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 259.6 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 92.33% [12]. - The latest copper concentrate TC is - 41.4 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.9 US dollars and a weekly increase rate of 2.22% [12]. - The latest copper - aluminum ratio is 3.8325, with a weekly decline of 0.0006 and a weekly decline rate of 0.02% [12]. - The latest refined - scrap copper price difference is 1,642.13 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 178.61 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 9.81% [12]. Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 31,838 tons, with a weekly increase of 6,278 tons and a weekly increase rate of 24.56% [18]. - The total International Copper warehouse receipts are 6,495 tons, with a weekly decline of 978 tons and a weekly decline rate of 13.09% [18]. - Shanghai Copper inventories are 105,814 tons, with a weekly increase of 11,760 tons and a weekly increase rate of 12.5% [18]. - LME Copper registered warehouse receipts are 135,425 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,100 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.58% [18]. - LME Copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 13,450 tons, with a weekly decline of 7,400 tons and a weekly decline rate of 35.49% [20]. - LME Copper inventories are 148,875 tons, with a weekly decline of 5,300 tons and a weekly decline rate of 3.44% [20]. - COMEX Copper registered warehouse receipts are 149,509 tons, with a weekly increase of 1,920 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.3% [20]. - COMEX Copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 165,697 tons, with a weekly increase of 3,452 tons and a weekly increase rate of 2.13% [20]. - COMEX Copper inventories are 315,206 tons, with a weekly increase of 5,372 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.73% [20]. - Copper mine port inventories are 574,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 14,000 tons and a weekly increase rate of 2.5% [20]. - Social inventories are 418,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,300 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [20]. Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) - In July 2025, the monthly output of refined copper was 1.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%. The cumulative output was 9.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.1% [23]. - In July 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The cumulative output was 16.598 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [23]. Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In August 2025, the total annual capacity of refined copper rod was 15.84 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.11% [25]. - In August 2025, the total annual capacity of scrap copper rod was 8.19 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 24.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.21% [25]. - In August 2025, the total annual capacity of copper plate and strip was 3.59 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 64.72%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.01%, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.98% [25]. - In August 2025, the total annual capacity of copper rods was 2.2865 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 49.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.88% [25]. - In August 2025, the total annual capacity of copper tubes was 2.783 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 62.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.33%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.21% [25]. Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of copper concentrates was 2.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The cumulative import volume was 20.077445 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8% [29]. - In July 2025, the monthly import volume of anode copper was 84,217 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19%. The cumulative import volume was 466,925 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12% [29]. - In July 2025, the monthly import volume of cathode copper was 296,896 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. The cumulative import volume was 1,943,043 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6% [29]. - In July 2025, the monthly import volume of scrap copper was 190,078 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. The cumulative import volume was 1,335,483 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1% [29]. - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. The cumulative import volume was 3,540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% [29].
铜周报:铜价延续上涨趋势-20250921
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-09-21 02:50