芳烃橡胶早报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA: Near - term TA maintenance is implemented, the start - up rate decreases slightly, polyester load remains stable, inventory accumulates slightly, the basis weakens, and spot processing fees recover slightly. PX domestic start - up decreases, overseas devices operate smoothly, PXN weakens month - on - month, disproportionation and isomerization benefits remain stable, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia widens. In the future, as device restarts slow down TA destocking, polyester shows no unexpected performance, and new production is added, far - month inventory accumulation is expected. However, processing fees have reached a very low level for a long time, and PX supply gradually returns. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees under potential additional maintenance [1]. - For MEG: Near - term domestic oil - based EG slightly reduces load, coal - based start - up remains stable, overseas maintenance and restarts coexist, arrivals remain stable while shipments are dull, and port inventory accumulates slightly at the beginning of next week. Downstream stocking levels rise, the basis weakens month - on - month, and the benefit ratio shrinks. Near - term new device commissioning is earlier than expected, and valuation is significantly compressed. In the future, with the increase in arrivals month - on - month and the expectation of high supply in the far - month, ports may start to gradually accumulate inventory, but the actual inventory is still not high, and valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [1]. - For polyester staple fiber: Upstream, Zhongtai and Xianglu increase load, and the start - up rate rises to 95.4%. Sales improve month - on - month, and inventory continues to decline. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remains stable, raw material stocking increases, and finished - product inventory decreases. In the future, the rate of increasing the load of polyester yarn may slow down due to high finished - product inventory. The start - up of staple fiber remains high due to good spot benefits, but inventory pressure is limited, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate [1]. - For natural rubber: The national explicit inventory remains stable. The price of Thai cup rubber remains stable, and there is rainfall. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For styrene and its derivatives: There are fluctuations in prices and production profits of styrene and related products such as ABS, EPS, and PS. The start - up rates of these products also show certain trends, but no clear overall prediction is given in the report [1]. 3. Summary by Product - related Content PTA - related - Market data: From September 15 - 19, 2025, crude oil prices fluctuated between 66.7 - 68.5. PTA spot prices were around 6655 - 6710, and the average daily trading basis was 2601(- 82). PX processing spreads were between 105.04 - 114.16 [1]. - Device status: Zhongtai Chemical's 1.2 million - ton device is under maintenance [1]. MEG - related - Market data: From September 15 - 19, 2025, MEG prices fluctuated. For example, the Northeast Asian ethylene price was 850 (except on September 19 when it was 845), and the MEG port inventory was 46.5. The basis was around 01(+ 90) [1]. - Device status: Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton device stopped operating again [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - related - Market data: The spot price was around 6412, and the market basis was around 10 - 20. - Device status: Zhongtai and Xianglu increased their loads, and the start - up rate reached 95.4% [1]. Natural Rubber - related - Market data: From September 1 - 9, 2025, prices of various types of natural rubber such as Shanghai full - cream rubber, Thai mixed rubber, etc. fluctuated. For example, the price of Shanghai full - cream rubber was between 14,335 - 16,100 [1]. - Analysis: The national explicit inventory remained stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber remained stable [1]. Styrene and Derivatives - related - Market data: From September 15 - 19, 2025, prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, etc. fluctuated. For example, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) was 850, and the price of pure benzene (CFR China) was between 5885 - 6080 [1]. - Profit situation: Profits of ABS, EPS, PS, etc. also changed daily [1].