农产品早报-20250922

Report Information - Report Date: September 22, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report [18] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Corn: In the short - term, new - season corn is about to be listed, and terminal demand is weakening, so the price is weak, but the decline is limited due to low inventory. In the long - term, with increased production and lower costs, the price is expected to decline until consumption improves or there is reluctance to sell in production areas [3] - Starch: In September, companies start to destock for the new season, pressuring corn prices. In the short - term, as the cost of purchasing corn decreases, the price of starch is expected to be lowered to reduce inventory. In the long - term, high inventory and lower expected raw material costs keep the outlook for starch prices bearish [3] - Sugar: Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, pressuring international sugar prices. The uncertainty of future production increases. Domestically, the market follows the trend of raw sugar, with downward pressure on the price due to the arrival of imported sugar [4] - Cotton: The market is in a shock state, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risk events, the April low may be the long - term bottom, and the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [6] - Eggs: Since September, due to increased demand for school opening and festival stocking, the spot price has rebounded. High inventory and cold - storage eggs limit the price increase, but the price is unlikely to fall below the feed cost. Attention should be paid to the situation of chicken culling and cold - storage egg release [9] - Apples: The new - season apple harvest is approaching. The national production is expected to be similar to last year. The current consumption is in the off - season, and the price is temporarily stable. Attention should be paid to the final production [11] - Pigs: There are policy - related expectations for a production capacity inflection point next year, but in the medium - term, supply pressure still exists due to insufficient production capacity reduction. The spot price is hitting new lows, and the futures market is trading on weak reality. Attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15] Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in Changchun, Jinzhou, and other places remained mostly unchanged, with the base difference of corn changing by 9, and the base difference of starch changing by 8 [2] - Analysis: Short - term price of corn is weak, and long - term it is under pressure. For starch, short - term price reduction to reduce inventory, long - term bearish outlook [3] Sugar - Price Data: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and other places decreased, with the base difference changing by - 7, and the import profit changing by - 47 [4] - Analysis: International supply pressure affects prices, and domestic prices are under pressure due to imported sugar [4] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 20, and the inventory (warehouse receipts + forecasts) decreased by 206 [6] - Analysis: The market is in shock, waiting for demand verification, and the downward space is limited [6] Eggs - Price Data: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, and other places decreased, with the base difference changing by - 237 [9] - Analysis: Spot price rebounded in September, but high inventory limits the increase, and the price is unlikely to fall below the feed cost [9] Apples - Price Data: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged, and the base differences in different months changed slightly [10][11] - Analysis: The new - season production is expected to be similar to last year, the current consumption is in the off - season, and the price is stable [11] Pigs - Price Data: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, and other places changed slightly, and the base difference changed by 5 [15] - Analysis: There are policy expectations for the future, but medium - term supply pressure exists, and the spot price is hitting new lows [15]