沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250922

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: Last week, nickel prices showed a weak trend, with downstream demand being mainly for rigid needs and trading volume being average. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices remained firm, and shipping costs increased steadily due to rising coal prices. Ferronickel prices continued to rise slightly, pushing up the cost line, but ferronickel enterprises still faced losses overall. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline, with good inventory reduction during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. New energy vehicle production and sales data were positive, but the loading of ternary batteries continued to decline, having limited impact on nickel demand. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains unchanged. The conclusion is that Shanghai nickel 2510 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - 不锈钢: Spot stainless steel prices remained flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices and shipping costs were firm, and ferronickel prices increased steadily, resulting in a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline, with good inventory reduction during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The conclusion is that stainless steel 2511 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview | Type | 9 - 19 Price | 9 - 18 Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Futures | | | | | Shanghai nickel main contract | 121,500 | 120,940 | +560 | | LME nickel | 15,270 | 15,335 | - 65 | | Stainless steel main contract | 12,860 | 12,875 | - 15 | | Spot | | | | | SMM1 electrolytic nickel | 122,750 | 122,700 | +50 | | 1 Jinchuan nickel | 123,950 | 123,800 | +150 | | 1 imported nickel | 121,900 | 121,900 | 0 | | Nickel beans | 124,050 | 124,050 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 3042B (Wuxi) | 13,950 | 13,950 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 3042B (Foshan) | 14,150 | 14,150 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 3042B (Hangzhou) | 13,950 | 13,950 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 3042B (Shanghai) | 14,000 | 14,000 | 0 | [11] 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of September 19, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 29,834 tons, with futures inventory at 25,843 tons, an increase of 2,334 tons and 2,314 tons respectively [13]. | Type | 9 - 19 Inventory | 9 - 18 Inventory | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME nickel | 228,444 | 228,450 | - 6 | | Shanghai nickel (warehouse receipts) | 25,843 | 25,866 | - 23 | | Total inventory | 254,287 | 254,316 | - 29 | [14] 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On September 19, the inventory in Wuxi was 579,200 tons, in Foshan was 288,000 tons, and the national inventory was 987,100 tons, a decrease of 25,400 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 617,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons compared to the previous period [18]. | Type | 9 - 19 Inventory | 9 - 18 Inventory | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless steel warehouse receipts | 89,732 | 90,146 | - 414 | [19] 3.4 Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices | Type | Grade | 9 - 19 Price | 9 - 18 Price | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Red clay nickel ore CIF | Ni1.5% | 57 | 57 | 0 | US dollars/wet ton | | Red clay nickel ore CIF | Ni0.9% | 29 | 29 | 0 | US dollars/wet ton | | Shipping cost (Philippines - Lianyungang) | | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0 | US dollars/ton | | Shipping cost (Philippines - Tianjin Port) | | 12.5 | 12.5 | 0 | US dollars/ton | | High - nickel (wet ton) | 8 - 12 | 954.5 | 954.5 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Low - nickel (wet ton) | Below 2 | 3,470 | 3,470 | 0 | Yuan/ton | [21] 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Cost | Type | Cost | | --- | --- | | Traditional cost | 13,155 | | Scrap steel production cost | 13,562 | | Low - nickel + pure nickel cost | 16,853 | [23] 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation The converted import price is 123,099 yuan/ton [26]. 3.7 Factors Affecting the Market - Positive factors: The demand boost expectation during the "Golden September and Silver October", anti - involution policies, and cost support at 120,000 yuan [6]. - Negative factors: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged; the loading volume of ternary batteries decreases year - on - year [6].