白糖早报-20250922

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The international raw sugar price has fallen below 16 cents again, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar futures have been oscillating downward, hitting a two - year low. With the approaching end of the domestic consumption peak season and a significant increase in sugar imports, the main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar futures is generally in a weak oscillating trend [6][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review The document does not contain content related to the previous day's review. 3.2 Daily Hints - Fundamentals: The ISO predicts a global sugar supply gap of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons; in July, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [5]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,940 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 479 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [7]. - Inventory: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [7]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [7]. - Expectations: The international raw sugar price has fallen below 16 cents again, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar futures have been oscillating downward, hitting a two - year low. With the approaching end of the domestic consumption peak season and a significant increase in sugar imports, the main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar futures is generally in a weak oscillating trend [6][10]. 3.3 Today's Focus The document does not contain content related to today's focus. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply - demand Balance: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. The ISO predicts a supply gap of 231,000 tons; Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 4.7 million tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 1.21 million tons; Green Pool predicts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons; USDA predicts a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption in the 25/26 season, with a surplus of 11.397 million tons [5][10][36]. - Domestic Data: China's sugar production, sales, import, and consumption data are as follows: in the 24/25 season, cumulative sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons. The domestic sugar consumption is expected to be 15.9 million tons in the 25/26 season [5][37]. - Price: The international raw sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound in the 25/26 season, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [37]. 3.5 Position Data The main position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [7].