大越期货油脂早报-20250922

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, the demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of rapeseed products, and the domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,408, with a basis of 80, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,318, with a basis of 2, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - Main Position: The main palm oil contract has changed from long to short [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,203, with a basis of 135, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,800 - 10,200 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - 利空: The prices of edible oils are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic edible oil inventory has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5] - Main Logic: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]