大越期货尿素早报-20250922

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state where the overall supply in China exceeds demand significantly. The futures price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, while international urea prices are strong. The export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and it is predicted that the trend of UR today will be volatile [4]. - The positive factor is the strong international price, while the negative factors are the high production and daily output and the weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes of international prices and domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Recently, the urea futures market has been fluctuating weakly. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the inventory is generally high. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has increased, the operating rate of melamine is neutral, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The overall supply of urea in China exceeds demand significantly, and the theoretical export profit has continued to reach new highs, but the export volume has decreased due to policies and other reasons. The spot price of the delivery product is 1720 (-10), indicating a generally bearish fundamental situation [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 59, with a premium or discount ratio of 3.4%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.371 million tons (-40,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - Futures Market: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the main UR contract has increased, which is bullish [4]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - Spot: The spot price of the delivery product is 1720 (-10), the Shandong spot price is 1720 (-10), the Henan spot price is 1730 (0), and the FOB China price is 3273 [6]. - Futures: The price of the 01 contract is 1661 (-9), the basis is 59 (-1), the price of the UR05 contract is 1722 (-3), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1744 (-1) [6]. - Inventory: The warehouse receipt is 7810 (-378), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.371 million tons, the UR manufacturer's inventory is 888,000 tons, and the UR port inventory is 483,000 tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea industry has shown continuous growth in capacity, production, and apparent consumption. The import dependence has fluctuated, and the consumption growth rate has also varied. For example, in 2019, the capacity was 24.455 million tons with a growth rate of 8.9%, and the consumption growth rate was 12.8% [9].