燃料油早报-20250922

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst oscillated, the near - month spread oscillated, the basis strengthened slightly, the EW spread rebounded again and fluctuated widely recently, and the domestic and foreign near - months of FU oscillated. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but was at a historically low level, the monthly spread was weakly sorted, the domestic and foreign prices of LU rebounded slightly to $8 - 9 per ton, and the MF0.5 basis oscillated [5]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue decreased, floating storage oscillated, ARA residue inventory decreased slightly, EIA residue decreased slightly, Fujairah inventory decreased, and high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East increased significantly. The high - sulfur peak season in the Middle East has passed. Supported by logistics reshaping and Singapore's high - sulfur marine fuel demand, the EW spread has been repaired. Recently, refinery feedstock purchases support the 380 cracking level, with limited short - term downside space. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain an oscillating pattern, and domestic FU should be considered with a short - term domestic and foreign oscillating and bullish mindset. This week, the LU market was still weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas met expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis oscillated at a low level. In the fourth quarter, the domestic and foreign spreads of LU can be widened on dips, and attention should be paid to quota usage [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Market | Index | Initial Value (2025/09/15) | Final Value (2025/09/19) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO Swap M1 | 381.06 | 382.97 | - 0.38 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO Swap M1 | 435.93 | 427.48 | - 6.73 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 6.95 | - 5.82 | 0.82 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 671.73 | 668.48 | - 9.07 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 | - 235.80 | - 241.00 | 2.34 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 24.47 | 24.80 | - 0.38 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 54.87 | 44.51 | - 6.35 | [3] Singapore Market | Index | Initial Value (2025/09/15) | Final Value (2025/09/19) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 392.66 | 390.12 | - 5.94 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 404.29 | 400.69 | - 6.57 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 466.57 | 465.21 | - 7.07 | | Singapore GO M1 | 87.42 | 87.81 | - 0.53 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 4.97 | - 5.13 | - 0.16 | | Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 | - 180.34 | - 184.58 | - 3.14 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Market | Index | Initial Value (2025/09/15) | Final Value (2025/09/19) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 392.42 | 390.94 | - 6.53 | | FOB VLSFO | 468.08 | 464.79 | - 7.28 | | 380 Basis | - 1.60 | 0.40 | - 0.20 | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 7.5 | - | - | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 7.5 | - | - | [4] Domestic FU Market | Index | Initial Value (2025/09/15) | Final Value (2025/09/19) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2799 | 2796 | - 2 | | FU 05 | 2752 | 2754 | 0 | | FU 09 | 2702 | 2699 | 1 | | FU 01 - 05 | 47 | 42 | - 2 | | FU 05 - 09 | 50 | 55 | - 1 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 97 | - 97 | 3 | [4] Domestic LU Market | Index | Initial Value (2025/09/15) | Final Value (2025/09/19) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3349 | 3362 | - 23 | | LU 05 | 3325 | 3337 | - 31 | | LU 09 | 3321 | 3308 | - 14 | | LU 01 - 05 | 24 | 25 | 8 | | LU 05 - 09 | 4 | 29 | - 17 | | LU 09 - 01 | - 28 | - 54 | 9 | [5]