PTA、MEG早报-20250922

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - PTA: Prices are expected to fluctuate based on cost factors in the short - term, with attention on polyester upstream and downstream device changes. The price rose slightly and then fell rapidly this week. The futures market followed the cost - end trend on Friday, and the impact of PTA's own device changes on the market was limited. The spot basis was weak [5]. - MEG: The price is expected to adjust at a low level in the short - term. The market sentiment has been affected by new device progress and weak terminal markets. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation starting from the fourth quarter, putting pressure on the market. The opening rate dropped slightly to below 74% on Friday, mainly due to the temporary shutdown of Xinjiang Tianye [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No relevant information provided. 2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamentals: On Friday, some major suppliers sold goods. September goods were traded at a discount of 75 - 85 to the 01 contract, with prices ranging from 4510 - 4605. October goods were traded at a discount of 55 - 70 to the 01 contract. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 82 [6]. - Basis: The spot price was 4555, and the 01 contract basis was - 49, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory was 3.8 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: Net short position, with short positions increasing [6]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level. The price fluctuated slightly during the day, and the spot basis strengthened moderately. In the afternoon, next - week's spot was traded at a premium of 93 - 96 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The external market price also adjusted weakly, with recent shipments traded at 514 - 518 US dollars/ton [7]. - Basis: The spot price was 4352, and the 01 contract basis was 95, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main Position: Net short position [7]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity increased steadily, and changes in supply, demand, and inventory showed certain periodicity. For example, in 2025, the production capacity increased from 8602 in January to 9472 in December. The supply - demand gap also fluctuated, with some months showing a supply surplus and others a deficit [13]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the production and supply of ethylene glycol also changed. The total supply and demand showed an overall upward trend, and the inventory at ports also changed accordingly. For example, in 2025, the total supply increased from 250 in January to 252 in December [14]. Price Data - Spot Prices: On September 19, 2025, compared with the previous day, the spot price of naphtha increased by 9 US dollars/ton to 584.5 US dollars/ton, the spot price of PX increased by 17 US dollars/ton to 854 US dollars/ton, the domestic PTA price index decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 4530 yuan/ton, and the domestic MEG price index remained unchanged at 4342 yuan/ton [15]. - Futures Prices: The prices of PTA and MEG futures contracts generally decreased. For example, the TA01 contract decreased by 62 yuan/ton to 4604 yuan/ton, and the EG01 contract decreased by 11 yuan/ton to 4257 yuan/ton [15]. - Profit Data: PTA processing fees decreased by 495.314 yuan/ton to - 55.83 yuan/ton. The internal - market profit of naphtha - based MEG decreased by 14.731 yuan/ton to - 1154.59 yuan/ton, while the internal - market profit of externally - purchased ethylene - based MEG increased by 116.601 yuan/ton to - 875.67 yuan/ton [15]. 5. Other Data (Graphs and Trends) - PET Bottle Chip Data: Included price, production profit, capacity utilization, inventory, and other data trends from 2020 - 2025 [18][21][23][26]. - Spread Data: Included PTA and MEG month - to - month spreads, basis spreads, and spot spreads from 2020 - 2025 [27][34][42]. - Inventory Data: Included inventory trends of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester products from 2020 - 2025 [44][46][50][53]. - Operating Rate Data: Included upstream and downstream operating rates of polyester from 2020 - 2025, such as PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms [55][57][59][61]. - Profit Data: Included PTA processing fees, MEG production profit, and polyester fiber production profit from 2022 - 2025 [63][65][67].