集运早报-20250922

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, there is a risk of price - slashing in the spot market, and the futures market is expected to remain weak. High current positions pose risks of pre - holiday position reduction or subsequent position transfer [1]. - In the medium - term, there are multiple upward drivers. From a valuation perspective, the 02 contract has a higher cost - effectiveness for long - positions compared to the 12 contract because the Spring Festival in 2026 is relatively late (February 17, 2026), and the settlement price of the 02 contract may be higher. The 04 contract is currently over - valued and is more suitable for short - positions in the short - term, but its low liquidity may make it vulnerable to disturbances. Therefore, attention can be paid to the 12 - 02 reverse spread and the 02 - 04 positive spread [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Futures Contract Information - Futures Prices and Changes: The closing prices and price changes of multiple EC and FC futures contracts are presented. For example, the EC2510 contract closed at 1050.5 with a 5.01% increase, while the FC2512 contract closed at 1630.0 with a 0.93% decrease [1]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The spreads between different contract months are provided, such as the EC2510 - 2512 spread being - 579.5, showing a - 40.1 change compared to the previous day [1]. Index Information - Shipping Indexes: Various shipping indexes are updated weekly or monthly. For instance, the SCHIS index was 0 on September 15, 2025, down 100.00% from the previous period; the SCFI index was 1052 dollars/TEU on September 19, 2025, down 8.84% from the previous period [1]. Spot Market Information - Downstream Booking: Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the period from the end of September to the beginning of October (week 39 - 41). The average quote for week 39 is 1640 dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market), and for weeks 40 - 41, it is 1500 dollars (equivalent to 1050 points on the futures market) [1]. - Shipping Capacity: The weekly average shipping capacities in September, October, and November are 290,000, 271,400, and 313,900 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, they are 290,000, 271,400, and 293,400 TEU [1]. News and Other Information - Military Action News: On September 20, 2025, the Israeli Defense Forces expanded their ground operations in Gaza City, resulting in 34 Palestinian deaths in the past 24 hours [3]. - Index Delay Note: The XSI - C index is delayed by three working days for publication [4].